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原文標題：

ARK Invest’s new Tesla Price Target includes $4 Trillion Market Cap, 10M
cars in 2025
ARK Invest的新特斯拉價格目標包括4兆美元的市值，2025年的1000萬輛汽車銷售量

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/Xe2ZX0

發布時間：

Posted by Jason Cartwrighton March 20, 2021

原文內容：

Cathy Wood’s Ark Invest is famous for being bullish about Tesla. Ark Invest
has just released an update to their price target for Tesla in 2025 and it
includes a bull case where Tesla ships 10 million cars, autonomous robotaxis
and has a more than 25% chance of being worth more than 4 Trillion dollars.

Ark Invest’s updated forecast includes key updates to their model.

。We pushed our forecast price target forward one year to 2025.
。We refined our estimates for Tesla’s capital efficiency.
。We added Tesla’s insurance business to our model.
。We added assumptions for a human-driven ride-hail service.
。We increased the probability of Tesla achieving fully autonomous driving
within five years.

Naturally with all good funds, they set out a bear and bull case, which even
in the worst case has Tesla growing substantially to ship 5 million cars by
2025 and be worth almost 3x what they are now with a $1.5 Trillion market cap
and share price.

To give you some perspective, Apple has a 2.01T market cap today and Amazon
is at 1.55T.

https://i.imgur.com/YpPrYG1.jpg

Ark breaks down their model with a number of key inputs.

While Elon has predicted around 50% annual growth rate, Ark clearly thinks
Elon is sandbagging with predictions that could be somewhere between 65 and
90%.

When it comes to the autonomous story for Tesla, executing makes up a
significant portion of the predicted growth of the company. While Musk has
never confirmed an interim step of having Uber-style competitor of a
human-driven ride-hailing service, Ark, clearly thinks they should.

Ark Invest’s new model has Tesla earning as much as $20 Billion in operating
profit by 2025 as a bull case. Personally I think the likelyhood of this
occurring is incredibly low, with any potential revenue opportunity being
offset by a distraction to the larger mission of replacing drivers completely
and making our roads safer.

With much debate about the FSD Beta lately, it’s hard to deny that the
videos shared online show the promise of the technology and Ark are clearly
seeing a massive uptick in adoption, once the technology (and regulation) are
ready to go. The take rate for FSD currently isn’t great, possibly around
10%, while Ark predicts around 60% of Tesla vehicles will be using it in 2025.

As bold as these numbers sound from Ark, it’s important to realise these do
not include all Tesla operations, with a disclaimer at the bottom of the post.

Note: We do not model Tesla’s utility energy storage or solar business in
our models.  We also have not modeled bitcoin assumptions in our model.

Read the full report on Ark Invest.
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/

機翻如下：



Ark Invest的更新預測包括對其模型的關鍵更新。

我們將預測價格目標提前一年到2025年。
我們完善了對特斯拉資本效率的估計。
我們將特斯拉的保險業務添加到了我們的模型中。
我們增加了人為驅動的叫車服務的假設。
我們增加了特斯拉在五年內實現全自動駕駛的可能性。



為了給您一些比較，今天蘋果的市值為2.01T，而亞馬遜的市值為1.55T。

https://i.imgur.com/YpPrYG1.jpg

方舟會通過許多關鍵輸入細分他們的模型。

雖然Elon預測年增長率約為50％，但Ark顯然認為Elon的預測可能在65％至90％之間。







正如Ark所說的那樣大膽，重要的是要意識到這些不包括特斯拉的所有業務，在文章的底
部有一個免責聲明。

注意：我們不會在模型中對Tesla的公用事業儲能或太陽能業務進行建模。 我們還沒有在
模型中對比特幣假設進行建模。

心得/評論：

一如既往地看得非常好

不過這次的估值不包括比特幣和能源事業

不談虛幻的比特幣

能源的部分，Elon Musk本身在未來看得非常高，甚至比電車還高。

基本估到3000，熊市1500，牛市4000

應該說變保守了其實


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