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[外電選譯] 懷舊遊戲以後可能會跌價嗎?(from Reddit)



by AstorReinhardnt

翻譯：Edge Chuang Feng-Chun

AstorReinhardt 1 指標 6 月前

I'll add in the same rant I usually give when people ask this...and people
ask it A LOT.



The price is so high because of supply and demand. Supply goes down (these
games only had x amount made, so no more new supply added to the market),
demand goes up. You could look at anything in the world and you'd see the
same supply and demand thing work. The demand is up right now because
collecting retro games is hot.

價格會那麼貴是因為供需關係導致，那些遊戲當年只生產了某個數量，所
以市面上不會再增加新的貨源。供給變少，需求卻增加。你可以發現這種
供需關係也存在在其他地方。因為收藏懷舊遊戲現在變的很熱門，才使得
需求增加。


Also collectors are people in their 20s-30s (born in the 1980s and
1990s...they grew up on this stuff), they now have jobs, which gives them
money and stress, so to destress and think about "the good old days" they
want to relive their childhood with the classic games. So they buy them up.


也因為蒐藏家們現在正值二十到三十多歲的年紀（跟電玩一起長大的他
們，多生於八零、九零年代），現在他們有在上班，工作帶給他們金
錢與壓力，為了紓解壓力與緬懷往日與經典遊戲一同渡過的童年美好
時光，他們開始狂收遊戲。


And if they're not collectors, or they're new to the game...they'll buy at
FMV or higher...keeping scummy resellers in business.

他們若不是收藏家，就是遊戲新手…他們會以訂價全額或更高的價格
買下，讓人渣轉賣廚得以倖存。

Now let's get to your big question...will the price go down. Yes. At least I
really believe it will. Remember what I said about the age group of buyers
right now? In 20 years how old will they be? 40 and 50. I doubt they'll still
be collecting retro games. Why? Responsibilities and life. As people grow
older they get more shit to deal with (marrage, buying a house, buying a car,
change jobs, moving, kids, putting kids through school, medical bills...) so
they have less time and money to put into something so trivial. They'll sell
the games to get a little cash back...thus putting more games into the
market. So supply goes up...demand goes down. Lower prices.

現在就來回答你的大哉問…「懷舊遊戲價格會下跌嗎」？會的，至少我相信總有一天一
定會。記得我前面提過的那些買家現在的年齡層嗎？二十年後他們會幾歲？四十到五
十左右。我懷疑他們到時還會不會繼續收集懷舊遊戲…？為什麼呢？由於責任與生活
壓力。人越長大就會有越多鳥事要面對處理（結婚、購屋、買車、換工作、搬家、
小孩、安排小孩上學、醫療費用…）。所以他們無法投入時間跟金錢在這麼次要的事
情上。所以他們會出清遊戲去換點現金回來。因而把遊戲釋出流通。所以供給增加、
需求減少，價格就會下跌。

Also something to think about is the health of gamers. Ok I don't want to
pull from the stereotype book but...I bet about 50% of gamers/collectors are
overweight. How much overweight idk. But being overweight is bad...so many
medical issues! So if these people who are now 20-30 go and not lose
weight...in 10 or 20 years...they might not be here. That's going to the
extreme though. But I'd bet a good amount would keep gaining weight and not
care about their health...and bam...heart attack! Their games get sold off
after their death and once more...supply goes up, demand goes down!

另外重要的考量點是玩家的健康狀況。我並非想提書中的刻板印象為例，但我猜約有
一半的玩家／收藏家體重過重。有多重我不知道，但過重並不好…會有很多健康上的
問題！所以假如這些人現在約二三十歲，也不去減重…那麼在十到二十年之內…他們
可能就不會在這裡了。雖然這的確極端了一點。但我猜這麼大的量將會讓體重持續增
加與忽略健康，以及心臟病！他們的遊戲收藏會在他們過世後賣光光，再度回到遊戲
片供給增多，需求減少的狀況。


So this isn't going to happen overnight or even in 5 years...

Unless your in this for the long haul, I say get out of collecting and go
with reproductions, emulators, or flash carts. This isn't the time to start
collecting, more and more people have smart phones and with ebay being just a
swipe away...less people are going to sell their retro games for a buck a pop
at a yard sale. We're all ready getting people looking up their stuff on ebay
and pricing games with ebay prices at yard sales so it's happening...and will
keep happening.

所以這些至少到明天或五年之內都還不會發生…

  我主張遠離收藏行為，採用重發版、模擬器，或是燒錄卡。現在並不是
收藏的好時機，越來越多的人擁有智慧型手機，滑一下就可連上到網拍頁
面，越來越少人去跳蚤清倉賣掉他們的懷舊遊戲，換幾個零花錢。我們都
我們都已看到人們將手上的東西，拿到ebay上查詢價格後，再貼上ebay網
拍價拿到車庫拍賣來賣…而且這現象將會一直發生。

If you are in this for the long haul aka LIFE, then sit down, buckle up and
deal with the prices. There's no sugar coating it...you pay these prices or
you find another way to play the games.


假如你長久以來像這樣過日子，請你坐好、做好準備來標價，
真相並不那麼令人好受…你得照價付錢，或是你得換別種
方式來玩遊戲。


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※ 作者: EDGE 時間: 2016-10-06 23:48:55