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※ 本文轉寄自 ptt.cc 更新時間: 2025-04-29 15:43:03
看板 Stock
作者 icrose (人本良心)
標題 [新聞] U.S. agriculture isn't nearing a trade war tariff cr
時間 Tue Apr 29 09:16:15 2025

U.S. agriculture isn't nearing a trade war tariff crisis, it's in a 'full-blown crisis already,' farmers say
農民們說，美國農業並沒有接近貿易戰關稅危機，它已經處於“全面危機”之中
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/28/trade-war-tariffs-full-blown-crisis-us-farm-exporters-say.html
https://tinylink.info/Y9t4
MON, APR 28 2025 7:09 AM EDT
Lori Ann LaRocco


KEY POINTS
The global backlash to the Trump tariffs is punishing U.S. agriculture, especially with a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, farmers said.
A leading agriculture exports group said "massive" financial losses are already racking up at farms, with cancelled orders resulting in layoffs, as China stops buying products from pork to lumber.
"No one can replace all the volume that China buys," one farm operator reported.
A crane unloads peas imported from Canada at the Laizhou port area of Yantai Port in Yantai, China, Feb. 28, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
The clock is ticking on trade deals that the U.S. will need to strike with many nations, most notably China, to avoid what President Donald Trump's Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has described as an unsustainable tariff war. But in the U.S. farming sector, the damage has already been done and the economic crisis already begun.

U.S. agriculture exporters say the global backlash to Trump's tariffs is punishing them, especially through a decline in Chinese buying of U.S. farm products, leading to canceled export orders and layoffs.

Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, or AgTC, a leading export trade group for farmers, told CNBC the number of canceled purchases of U.S. agricultural products should not be described as approaching a crisis. "It is a full-blown crisis already," he said.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday revealed China made its biggest cancellation of pork orders since 2020, halting a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork.

AgTC said "massive" financial losses are already being felt by its members as a result of the trade war, based on reports it is receiving from member companies.

A wood pulp and paperboard exporter reported to the trade group the immediate cancellation or hold of 6,400 metric tons in a warehouse and a hold of 15 railcars sitting in what is known in the supply chain as "demurrage," when fees are charged for delayed movement of goods.

Meanwhile, the exporter said, 9,000 metric tons of the product are on the water to China, expected to arrive May 13 and facing the threat of costly diversion to Chinese bonded warehouses or to other countries, as Chinese buyers may refuse the cargo and abandon it at port.

One grass seed exporter told AgTC it received two weeks' notice that eight loads were being canceled by Chinese customers despite vessels already being booked.

At a recent stakeholder meeting at the Port of Oakland headquarters regarding tariff impacts, Port of Oakland Executive Director Kristi McKenney warned that a tariff-induced downturn in the port's cargo volume — whether from import slowdowns or retaliatory export losses — ultimately could jeopardize job stability and the region's economic health.

McKenney cited retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, as well as manufactured goods; both are essential exports that move through Oakland. Exports include almonds, beef, pork, dairy, and recycled materials, much of which is destined for Asia. China ranks as the port's top import trading partner and third export partner, representing 29% of Oakland's total trade volume.

Unlike many U.S. ports that lean heavily on imports, Oakland is unique in maintaining a near 50/50 balance of imports and exports. That leaves Oakland concerned that tariff retaliation would directly impact its top export destinations — Japan, Taiwan, China and South Korea — and could significantly erode California's market share for perishable and high-value commodities.

The Port of Oakland is the No. 1 refrigerated export gateway in the U.S., and nearly all containerized cargo moving through Northern California goes through the Port of Oakland.

"So many local, union jobs depend on the Port's robust shipping operations including dockworkers, truck operators, and warehouse workers," said Rep. Lateefah Simon, D-Calif. "I support smart trade policies that uplift workers and lower costs for Oakland's working families — not an illogical and retaliatory trade war."

Agricultural exporters warned that there are no other markets that can quickly replace China's demand and absorb the volume, and that is already affecting prices.

"We have diverted employees and production to other (less profitable) production and dramatically slowed down purchasing from independent venders (loggers, truckers, sawmills)," one lumber exporter reported to AgTC. Some products have already declined 20% in market value, the exporter reported, which it said will influence inventory planning and future investments.

"The U.S. market was stable and improving, but now awash with inventory of former China products," the lumber exporter said.


An exporter of forage such as hay and straw that is a big business for U.S. farms supplying overseas livestock operations reported 68 blanked sailings after Trump announced new tariffs April 2. It said this limits its ability to export forage goods, as vessel space for exports is restricted on freight ships still calling on U.S. ports.

"The worry is the vessel space that remains is going to be the most expensive/most 'premium' services that our product cannot absorb without selling at a loss. Being a high volume, low value item, we cannot afford drastic increases in ocean freight," the forage exporter reported to AgTC.

There has been a sharp decline in China-to-U.S. vessel traffic, down 22.15% week over week and 44% year over year through April 14, according to the Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker.

"What we've seen in the last two weeks is a continued correction in booking demand for U.S. imports, especially U.S. imports from China," said Ben Tracy, Vizion's vice president of strategic business development. "We are now seeing this translate to a drop in departures as well."


A hay exporter in central Washington that sends a large amount of its crop output to Hong Kong and mainland China was told to reroute most of the exports shipped in the past two weeks to Japan, Dubai, Taiwan, and a few Chinese ports. Those changes came at a cost to the company, which told the AgTC that "it's not sustainable, no one can replace all the volume that China buys."

The hay exporter said it immediately put a stop on all orders in process, and has begun layoffs.

"We had to adjust our employee count down by 12 persons. This accounts for one-fourth of our total employees," it wrote. The company said it has been communicating to customers and employees its hope that "hasty and reckless decision-making at the top of our country will reverse, easing deep troubles that we are facing at this time."


In addition to the tariff backlash, agriculture is facing another looming financial challenge with the recently announced SHIPS Act measures approved by the US Trade Representative, with Chinese-made vessels calling at U.S. ports to be charged port fees of more than $1.5 million starting in the fall.

Bulk agriculture was carved out of the port fees imposed under the USTR rule, but agriculture shipped in containers is not exempt from the fees. Friedmann said an exemption is essential because the most valuable U.S. agriculture exports are shipped in containers, not bulk.

Containerized exports include refrigerated beef, pork, poultry, fruit, vegetables, dairy, and processed foods such as french fries. Cotton, nuts, dried dairy, lumber, paper, soybeans for human consumption, and forage, such as hay and alfalfa, are also shipped in containers. "Efforts to exempt all agriculture exports, including containerized agriculture, are continuing," Friedmann said.

Based on U.S. trade data, the share of U.S. agriculture moved in containers is approximately 25% by volume and nearly 55% by value.

The USTR did not respond to a CNBC request for comment on fee exemptions for containerized agriculture.

"So much of our future lies in the hands of so few," a hay exporter wrote to AgTC. "We plead for those few to take a very long careful look at what can be done to keep shipments flowing while they work out the trade imbalances and perceived differences."

農民們說，美國農業並沒有接近貿易戰關稅危機，它已經處於“全面危機”之中

關鍵點
農民們表示，全球對特朗普關稅的強烈反對正在懲罰美國農業，尤其是隨著中國對美國農產品的購買量下降。
一家領先的農業出口集團表示，隨著中國停止購買從猪肉到木材的產品，農場已經出現了“巨大”的財務損失，訂單取消導致裁員。
一比特農場經營者報告稱：“沒有人能取代中國購買的所有數量。”。
2025年2月28日，中國煙臺港萊州港區，一臺起重機正在卸載從加拿大進口的豌豆。
Nurphoto| Nurphoto|蓋蒂圖片社
美國需要與許多國家，尤其是中國，達成貿易協定，以避免唐納德· 特朗普總統的財政部長斯科特· 貝森特所說的不可持續的關稅戰。 但在美國農業部門，損害已經造成，經濟危機已經開始。
美國農業出口商表示，全球對特朗普關稅的強烈反對正在懲罰他們，尤其是中國對美國農產品的購買量下降，導致出口訂單取消和裁員。
農業運輸聯盟（AgTC）執行董事Peter Friedmann告訴CNBC，取消購買美國農產品的數量不應被描述為接近危機。 他說：“這已經是一場全面的危機。”。
美國農業部週四公佈的資料顯示，中國取消了自2020年以來最大的猪肉訂單，停止了1.2萬噸猪肉的運輸。
AgTC表示，根據其從成員公司收到的報告，由於貿易戰，其成員已經感受到了“巨大”的經濟損失。
一家木漿和紙板出口商向貿易組織報告，立即取消或扣留了倉庫中的6400公噸和15節軌道車，這些軌道車在供應鏈中被稱為“滯期費”，即對貨物延遲運輸收取費用。
與此同時，出口商表示，9000公噸的產品正在運往中國，預計將於5月13日抵達，並面臨著昂貴的轉移到中國保稅倉庫或其他國家的威脅，因為中國買家可能會拒絕貨物並將其丟棄在港口。
一家草籽出口商告訴AgTC，他們在兩周前收到通知，儘管船隻已經預訂，但中國客戶取消了八批貨物。
在奧克蘭港總部最近舉行的一次關於關稅影響的利益相關者會議上，奧克蘭港執行董事克裏斯蒂· 麥肯尼警告說，關稅導致的港口貨物量下降——無論是進口放緩還是報復性出口損失——最終都可能危及就業穩定和該地區的經濟健康。
麥肯尼引用了對美國農產品和製成品徵收報復性關稅的例子； 兩者都是通過奧克蘭運輸的重要出口商品。 出口產品包括杏仁、牛肉、猪肉、乳製品和回收資料，其中大部分運往亞洲。 中國是奧克蘭最大的進口貿易夥伴和第三大出口夥伴，占奧克蘭貿易總額的29%。
與許多嚴重依賴進口的美國港口不同，奧克蘭在保持進出口接近50/50的平衡方面是獨一無二的。 這讓奧克蘭擔心，關稅報復將直接影響其主要出口目的地——日本、臺灣、中國和韓國——並可能大幅侵蝕加州易腐和高價值商品的市場份額。
奧克蘭港是美國第一大冷藏出口門戶，幾乎所有通過北加州的集裝箱貨物都通過奧克蘭港。
加利福尼亞州民主黨眾議員Lateefah Simon表示：“如此多的當地工會工作依賴於港口强大的航運業務，包括碼頭工人、卡車操作員和倉庫工人。我支持明智的貿易政策，以提高工人水准，降低奧克蘭工薪家庭的成本，而不是一場不合邏輯和報復性的貿易戰。”
農業出口商警告稱，沒有其他市場可以迅速取代中國的需求並吸收產量，這已經影響了價格。
一比特木材出口商向AgTC報告稱：“我們已將員工和生產轉移到其他（利潤較低的）生產中，並大幅放緩了從獨立供應商（伐木工人、卡車司機、鋸木廠）的採購。”。 該出口商報告稱，一些產品的市值已經下降了20%，這將影響庫存計畫和未來投資。
這位木材出口商表示：“美國市場穩定且有所改善，但現在充斥著前中國產品的庫存。”。
一家乾草和稻草等飼料出口商是美國農場供應海外牲畜業務的大企業，該出口商報告稱，在特朗普4月2日宣佈新關稅後，有68艘船只被封鎖。 該公司表示，這限制了其出口飼料產品的能力，因為仍停靠美國港口的貨船的出口空間受到限制。
“令人擔憂的是，剩下的船舶空間將是我們的產品在不虧本銷售的情况下無法吸收的最昂貴/最‘優質’的服務。作為一種大批量、低價值的產品，我們無法承受海運費用的大幅增加，”該飼料出口商向AgTC報告。
根據Vizion Global Ocean Bookings Tracker的數據，截至4月14日，中美船舶交通量急劇下降，環比下降22.15%，同比下降44%。
Vizion戰畧業務發展副總裁本· 特蕾西表示：“過去兩周，我們看到對美國進口商品的預訂需求持續調整，尤其是美國從中國進口的商品。”。 “我們現在看到這也轉化為離職人數的下降。”
華府中部的一家乾草出口商將大量農作物運往香港和中國大陸，該出口商被告知將過去兩周運送的大部分出口產品改線運往日本、迪拜、臺灣和中國一些港口。 這些變化對該公司來說是有代價的，該公司告訴AgTC，“這是不可持續的，沒有人能取代中國購買的所有數量。”
這家乾草出口商表示，它立即停止了所有正在處理的訂單，並開始裁員。
“我們不得不將員工人數減少12人。這占我們員工總數的四分之一，”它寫道。 該公司表示，它一直在與客戶和員工溝通，希望“我們國家高層草率魯莽的決策能够扭轉局面，緩解我們現時面臨的深層次問題。”
除了關稅反彈之外，農業還面臨著另一個迫在眉睫的財務挑戰，美國貿易代表最近準予了《船舶運輸與裝運法案》措施，從秋季開始，停靠美國港口的中國製造船隻將被收取超過150萬美元的港口費。
散裝農業是從美國貿易代表辦公室規定的港口費中扣除的，但集裝箱運輸的農業也不能免除這些費用。 弗裡德曼表示，豁免至關重要，因為美國最有價值的農產品出口是用集裝箱運輸的，而不是散裝運輸。
集裝箱出口包括冷藏牛肉、猪肉、家禽、水果、蔬菜、乳製品和炸薯條等加工食品。 棉花、堅果、幹乳製品、木材、紙張、供人類食用的大豆以及乾草和苜蓿等飼料也裝在集裝箱裏運輸。 弗裡德曼說：“包括集裝箱農業在內的所有農產品出口豁免的努力仍在繼續。”。
根據美國貿易數據，集裝箱運輸的美國農業份額按體積計算約為25%，按價值計算近55%。
美國貿易代表辦公室沒有回應CNBC關於集裝箱農業費用豁免的置評請求。
一比特乾草出口商在給AgTC的信中寫道：“我們的未來在很大程度上掌握在少數人手中。”。 “我們懇請這少數人在解决貿易不平衡和感知差异的同時，仔細研究如何保持貨物流動。”

心得/評論：

一家領先的農業出口集團表示，隨著中國停止購買從猪肉到木材的產品，農場已經出現了“巨大”的財務損失，訂單取消導致裁員。

但在美國農業部門，損害已經造成，經濟危機已經開始。
美國農業出口商表示，全球對特朗普關稅的強烈反對正在懲罰他們，尤其是中國對美國農產品的購買量下降，導致出口訂單取消和裁員。

科技巨頭的進口被豁免，汽車金主進口也豁免。以爲川普很愛他們的紅脖子受傷沒人care，不會排在最後吧

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雪壓枝頭低，雖低不着泥

一朝紅日出，依舊與天齊

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.28.117.234 (中國)
※ 作者: icrose 2025-04-29 09:16:15
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1e42Xaud (Stock)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1745889380.A.E27.html
※ 編輯: icrose (218.28.117.234 中國), 04/29/2025 09:19:09
推 mune        : MAGA!1F 04/29 09:21
推 jokem       : 不怕 中國要下跪了2F 04/29 09:23
推 garyman516  : MAGA：萬稅萬稅萬萬稅3F 04/29 09:24
→ weilawda    : MCGA！4F 04/29 09:26
推 yilin11     : 川友友炒股下的犧牲品5F 04/29 09:29
→ uv5566      : 紅脖子是心頭最軟的一塊 就讓你們承擔吧6F 04/29 09:31
推 kinki999    : 農產品，南美洲跟澳洲可取代，最大受害者吧7F 04/29 09:33
推 yitniya     : 才幾周就裁員也太誇張8F 04/29 09:33
推 g0t24568    : MAGA!9F 04/29 09:34
推 realmd      : 不急 華爾街大咖和財長都說時間站在美國這邊 撐下去10F 04/29 09:35
→ realmd      : 一定贏
推 GilGalad    : 讓這些MAGA仔死死好 矽鶴辣12F 04/29 09:36
→ tenka92417  : 老美農業部長認為沒事呀13F 04/29 09:38
→ tenka92417  : 有記者跑去採訪一個農場主還說他支持川寶的關稅（
→ tenka92417  : 死忠韭菜），但問題得需要獲得解決
推 takeda3234  : 翻譯 川普亂搞16F 04/29 09:40
推 idletime    : 別怕 中國不買 台灣會有人說要買下來。洗腦支持者說17F 04/29 09:41
→ idletime    : 為了就是國際地位
→ tenka92417  : 那個農場主是專門做苜蓿飼料的，原本也是出口到中19F 04/29 09:41
→ tenka92417  : 國大陸去，除了出口市場沒了，農機具需要的維修零
→ tenka92417  : 件目前也沒了
推 xcc54154    : 三個月不和解就要完蛋 佈局準備大爆噴吧22F 04/29 09:42
→ neilisme    : 傳產不重要，7巨頭繼續吹就能漲23F 04/29 09:43
噓 fafcfh      : 美國人不是只想要賺關稅跟當工人，自己愛當農夫活該24F 04/29 09:44
→ fafcfh      : 啊！
推 nwoyao      : 很好啊 繼續餓肚子支持 讚啦26F 04/29 09:45
→ wr          : 川普說這假新聞27F 04/29 09:48
推 poeoe       : 早說了 亂搞關稅戰農產品要賣給誰啊28F 04/29 09:48
推 YDSK        : 跟你們的總統講啊，跟我們講幹嘛www29F 04/29 09:49
推 deepelves   : 紅脖子不是做農業就是當汽車工人，一個滯銷一個失業30F 04/29 09:49
→ poeoe       : 中國就超大消費市場 他們不買農產品那換誰買31F 04/29 09:50
推 ian7777     : 看到這種新聞好開心32F 04/29 09:52
推 square      : 爽 舒服 爽33F 04/29 09:52
推 joy159357   : 台灣人會買 賣台灣就好34F 04/29 09:52
推 laba5566    : MAGA自業自得 哈哈35F 04/29 09:53
推 rainin      : 變BAGA了36F 04/29 09:54
推 Lebrono     : 川董：美國再次偉大37F 04/29 09:57
推 aswwqed     : 川川何時要認輸38F 04/29 10:00
推 supisces    : 記得有推文說，中國改買巴西的，原來巴西的買家就會39F 04/29 10:01
→ supisces    : 買美國的。
→ Altair      : 記得有一說是巴西不穩定 所以最後會幫美國洗產地41F 04/29 10:03
推 hyperyoujo  : 原本不是說美國最大消費市場，說中國人愛儲蓄什麼42F 04/29 10:06
→ hyperyoujo  : 的，所以現在又變成中國人超大市場了嗎…搞得我好
→ hyperyoujo  : 亂
→ stkoso      : 最大的消費市場一直是美國 中國是出口市場45F 04/29 10:10
→ jyan97      : 看領域啊，農產能源類中國消費很多，服務消費中國46F 04/29 10:10
→ jyan97      : 很弱
推 sova0809    : 農民跟農場接下來會大洗牌48F 04/29 10:11
→ uv5566      : 農產品是中國 美國農產品是出口主力 不同商品本來49F 04/29 10:11
→ uv5566      : 就不一樣
推 redbeanbread: 川普快來舔屁股51F 04/29 10:11
→ hihi29      : 讓紅脖子死光 米國才有救52F 04/29 10:12
→ sova0809    : 別指望其他國家能填補缺額 吃到撐死也填不滿53F 04/29 10:12
推 jerry10307  : 中又贏..贏幾次？54F 04/29 10:12
→ redbeanbread: 畢竟是死忠的baga55F 04/29 10:13
→ wr          : 中國是糧食跟能源的超大進口國 這些無法製造出來56F 04/29 10:14
→ wr          : 但是美國要生產糧食 也是搭配中國廉價工具跟機械
推 miracle7644 : 選對的人。走對的路。MAGA58F 04/29 10:17
推 strlen      : 糞川會補給你59F 04/29 10:17
推 anyu0805    : 拜託習大大快點跪～美國要炸了60F 04/29 10:18
推 sion1993    : 脖子勒緊一點 很快就撐過去了61F 04/29 10:27
→ tenka92417  : 全世界最大的黃小玉市場一直都是阿共62F 04/29 10:34
推 sova0809    : 2018到現在 黃小玉市場老美農民對老共出口一直被南63F 04/29 10:38
→ sova0809    : 美洲搶走
→ sova0809    : 肉類也是一樣狀況 這塊出口市場 不是只有老美再垂
→ sova0809    : 涎
→ tenka92417  : 阿共一直在玩平衡貿易，也沒有特別依賴單一市場67F 04/29 10:44
推 achinyu     : 假消息，一片欣欣向榮美好景象68F 04/29 10:51
推 hbket       : 爽啦自己愛選川普的69F 04/29 11:14
推 psee        : 全都賣來台灣  台派會吃下的70F 04/29 11:22
推 GilGalad    : 這是你們自己開啟的故事啊啊啊啊啊啊啊71F 04/29 11:27
→ budaixi     : https://i.imgur.com/cL3iHlx.jpeg72F 04/29 11:38
[圖]
推 Exusiai     : 真心希望賣給台灣73F 04/29 12:15
推 raygod      : 餐餐有美牛74F 04/29 12:17
推 moto000     : 蛤 高關稅還想出口 班班有豌豆75F 04/29 12:19
推 ko363630    : MAGA!76F 04/29 12:22
推 tlnrs       : 中國不要的憨島全部買了77F 04/29 12:28
推 tlnrs       : 美國農民怎麼不去天安門抗議？
推 matlab1106  : 就這些人選出來的啊XD79F 04/29 12:57
推 snaketsai   : 問就是MAGA80F 04/29 13:15
推 cosmite     : MAGA變BAKA81F 04/29 15:12
→ cosmite     : 川普不愧是包辦美國總統百日民調史上前兩低的總統
→ cosmite     : https://i.imgur.com/aarVv9b.jpeg
[圖]

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