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原文標題：Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’
provide policy challenges

原文連結：https://reurl.cc/lzMar9

發布時間：2025-5-15

記者署名：Jeff Cox

原文內容：

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest
rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux.

In remarks that focused on the central bank’s policy framework review, last
done in the summer of 2020, Powell noted that conditions have changed
significantly over the past five years.

During the period, the Fed witnessed a period of surging inflation, pushing
it to historically aggressive interest rate hikes. Powell said that even with
longer-term inflation expectations largely in line with the Fed’s 2% target,
the era of near-zero rates is not likely to return anytime soon.

“Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be
more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,”
Powell said in prepared remarks for the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in
Washington, D.C. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and
potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the
economy and for central banks.”

The Fed held its benchmark borrowing rate near zero for seven years following
the financial crisis in 2008. Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate
has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, most recently trading at 4.33%.

The “supply shocks” remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over
the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a
difficult balancing act between supporting employment and controlling
inflation.

Though he did not mention President Donald Trump’s tariffs in his Thursday
remarks, the central bank chief in recent days has noted the likelihood that
tariffs will slow growth and boost inflation. However, the extent of either
impact is difficult to gauge, particularly as Trump recently has backed off
the more aggressive duties pending a 90-day negotiating window.

Nevertheless, the Fed has been reluctant to ease policy after cutting its
benchmark rate by a full percentage point last year.

聯準會主席鮑爾表示，隨著經濟與政策環境改變，長期利率可能維持在較高水準。他指出
，未來供給衝擊可能更頻繁且持久，使通膨更不穩定，這將對央行構成挑戰。

儘管通膨預期仍接近2%，但鮑爾認為近零利率時代不太可能回來。他並未明指川普的關稅
，但曾提及關稅可能導致經濟成長放緩與物價上升，影響仍難評估。


心得/評論：

老鮑一句「高實質利率可能會常態化」是不是等於預告？

長債殖利率不會輕易回落
債券價格難有大反彈
供給衝擊+關稅效應 = 通膨壓力回來了

債蛙又要哭了？

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※ 作者: DrowningPool 2025-05-15 21:07:31
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1e9USLKa (Stock)
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