看板 Stock作者 bluejade1235 (藍玉)標題 Re: [情報] 美元會再漲5% !?降息不可能?時間 Thu Sep 14 10:24:47 2023
https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694237467.A.9B8
這篇文章很可惜的被刪掉了
其實ptt上有很多篇文章都在談論利率,如
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694611617.A.C3E.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694391683.A.776.html
等等,多不勝數
不過我也不怪板主,畢竟板主是無給職,每天要花那麼多時間維持板面也是很辛苦的
。
進入正文
臺灣人普遍都對利率太樂觀了
美國房貸利率7%
全世界平均房貸利率6%
臺灣房貸利率2%
日本房貸利率1.5%
全世界臺灣應該是第二名,只輸日本而已
。
美國縱然降息,他還有7%
利率這個東西,他是看絕對數字,而不是相對數字
舉例來說
醫師的薪水一直下降
服務員的薪水一直上升
有人會因為這樣不去當醫師而跑去當服務員嗎?
醫師薪水長期走降,但還是很高
服務員薪水長期走升,但還是很低
。
全世界利率平均是6%
就算下降2%,那也還有4%,是臺灣整整2倍之多
。
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/168320
美國是2022/3開始升息,一共升了5.5%,2022/3之前美國的利率是很低的
全世界也跟美國一樣,2022/3開始大幅升息,少數幾個國家例外而已
臺灣只升了0.5%,只有美國的1/10
像臺灣這樣的情況非常的少見,而且也不會長久
。
全世界的經濟是連在一起的,現在有人硬要說全世界都很差,只有我還好???
全世界的通膨是連在一起的,現在有人硬要說全世界都高通膨,只有我還好???
這個是一定不會長久的
。
我說臺灣房價會腰斬,這個是好意提醒你們,但你們聽不進去,硬要認為我在唱衰,然後
亂檢舉,我也不知道該說些什麼
大多數的人都對臺灣房價、臺灣利率太樂觀了
臺灣獨立於全世界的情況是不會長久的
※ 引述《gothmog (上海極司非爾路76號)》之銘言:
: 不負責翻譯在最後
: Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says
: The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-
: elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti
: ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Bloomberg News
: Anya Andrianova
: Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧
: (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m
: onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu
: rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition
: al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further
: interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi
: ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan
: d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen.
: His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru
: ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows
: it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic
: ipated.
: The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda
: y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But
: as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road
: as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil
: l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug
: hly 4.3% now.
: “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall
: y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10
: 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target
: s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.”
: Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says
: Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro
: ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov.
: 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h
: ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation.
: STORY CONTINUES BELOW
: The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r
: elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China.
: US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show
: inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The
: CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in
: July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to
: 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows.
: Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets
: “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate
: out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “
: But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t
: hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.”
: Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua
: n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most.
: He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v
: ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening.
: But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet
: ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden
: cut rates.”
: In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as
: he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for
: most of 2024.
: (Updates market movement.)
: 不負責翻譯如下
: Acadian Asset Management(知名資產管理公司)管理著約1000億美元的基金經理Clifton
: Hill表示,
: 未來幾個月,美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲,美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%(Fe
: d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息)
: 因為通膨打不下來,可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策,至少再加息2-3次
: 他說:美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功,反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息
: 結論: 救救美債?
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.44.10.2 (臺灣)
※ 作者: bluejade1235 2023-09-14 10:24:47
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1b0cxoJN (Stock)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694658290.A.4D7.html
※ 同主題文章:
Re: [情報] 美元會再漲5% !?降息不可能?
09-14 10:24 bluejade1235
推 a82412: 房價腰斬,記下來了,謝謝提醒1F 09/14 10:26
推 xupmc: 政府認證印鈔工具 不會跌啦2F 09/14 10:26
推 boykid: 每天喊總有一天會喊對,你要訂個期限吧3F 09/14 10:27
推 kony25: 說腰斬太激烈,但下修是有機會的5F 09/14 10:27
推 iamaq18c: 腰斬一定有可能 問題是啥時才會斬~ 喊個30年也可以6F 09/14 10:27
→ laserx: 我不認為會升息~到頂了~近一個月可以買債了~7F 09/14 10:28
→ laserx: 升息的效果已經鈍化~ Fed 只是不願意鬆口承認10F 09/14 10:29
推 stocktonty: 30年大循環來說 大概也要2024-2025年才會見頂14F 09/14 10:29
推 ab4daa: 房價只會漲不會跌 不要不信18F 09/14 10:31
推 disk249: 照你這樣講 高利率變成常態化? 我是不信
一旦通膨降低了 政府還有什麼理由維持高利率?19F 09/14 10:32
→ k85564: 你知道美國大部分是固定利率嗎25F 09/14 10:36
推 azxswqa: 先幫你補血等下房蟲要進攻了26F 09/14 10:38
推 komorin: 不要做夢房價會跌了,政府弄新青貸就是要穩住房市,搞不好還更貴28F 09/14 10:40
推 wekaytw: 防蟲大舉進攻 噴得你不要不要 喝~30F 09/14 10:40
→ wind2k: 房東有錢就買更多戶租, 房客等有錢就買房; 怎麼跌32F 09/14 10:42
噓 alex5566: 腰斬不太可能 要說回檔修正還有可能.... =.=33F 09/14 10:44
推 alinyaya: 10年前那個做夢會跌的到現在還在租房子34F 09/14 10:44
推 MbvLectA: 台灣只要還是藍綠 房價只會一年比一年高35F 09/14 10:44
推 strlen: 世界=美國=FED 哪有什麼世界 就只有FED37F 09/14 10:45
推 g0t24568: 做夢喔 房貸違約率沒變高 銀行也不會抽銀根啦40F 09/14 10:47
推 cckhyofg: 房價腰斬可以看看對岸現在什麼狗樣41F 09/14 10:47
推 esproject: 高通膨只會推升房價 要房價跌先通縮
請問台灣有通縮現象嗎?43F 09/14 10:48
噓 a316xxx: 我也可以說股市總有天會腰斬,但什麼時候我不知道45F 09/14 10:49
推 Gipmydanger: 說穿了還不是希望我買之前一直跌,我買之後一直漲。問題你的主觀願望不影響客觀事實50F 09/14 10:52
噓 leota: 哈哈54F 09/14 10:55
→ chunfo: 中國人一定願意溢價買 大不了全面開放55F 09/14 10:56
推 andyher: 看了一下作者是藍玉,那沒事了56F 09/14 10:56
推 fujioqq: 前面講的很合理阿 但是房價腰斬應該是幾乎不可能XD57F 09/14 10:56
推 imba789: 泡泡總會破裂,但執政黨會想辦法傳炸彈58F 09/14 10:57
推 c22748872: 以這個理論模型,從身高體重罩杯到老二長度最後全世界都會一樣啦,世界大同59F 09/14 10:58
→ mcucte: 政府還有五千億外匯可以賣,嘻嘻61F 09/14 10:58
→ buffon: ptt 這種自以為是的預言家真的太多了63F 09/14 10:59
→ buffon: 每個被打臉就躲起來 幾個月後又一副高深莫測預言65F 09/14 11:00
推 KMOOO: 什麼時候要腰斬啊?50年後嗎?隨便喊喊我也會66F 09/14 11:00
推 hihi29: 中肯 台灣房價遲早會崩!71F 09/14 11:02
噓 s58565254: 明年要降息了 台灣在這時候還升息??75F 09/14 11:12
→ ga6rx: 聽君一席話76F 09/14 11:13
噓 play6801: 腰斬銀行全部倒一倒,拜託快點77F 09/14 11:14
推 iamten: 台灣可以不升息啊 讓台幣貶就行 看日元78F 09/14 11:16
→ pov: all in美元79F 09/14 11:16
推 post91: 我記得腰斬這說法好像20年前就講過了…所以腰斬是越斬越高嗎?
然後真的腰斬我就好奇看跌的這群會敢買嗎?2020大跌時有人敢進場?80F 09/14 11:21
推 DEAKUNE: 反正有人沒子孫,債留其他人子孫84F 09/14 11:23
→ post91: 喔對了,就說美國暴力升息成這樣,房價有腰斬嗎?85F 09/14 11:23
推 niukb: 有一天你會贏記得把這篇文浮起來86F 09/14 11:23
→ post91: 為什麼人家升息不腰斬台灣就會?這到底有什麼邏輯87F 09/14 11:23
→ KY1998: 通膨一直都很高,台灣只是把負債隱藏在國營事業上,就跟你沒負債薪水照領,但你公司虧錢中,哪天公司倒了你跟著遭殃,家裡有錢沒差,又老又窮你看那些人要怎麼找工作89F 09/14 11:30
推 etrangere: 記得就算腰斬也是越來越貴喔, 60萬的一半跟80萬的一半是不一樣的93F 09/14 11:31
推 ford903: 所以升息後 美國房價腰斬了嗎?95F 09/14 11:32
→ KY1998: 美國跟台灣環境不同,美國是固定利率96F 09/14 11:34
推 joyeszhang: 政府幫忙吹的泡泡,會永遠幫建商吹嗎?我不這麼認為97F 09/14 11:34
推 jheli: 想太多,先看看美國現在的資產負債表吧….98F 09/14 11:34
推 snake7222: 腰斬前先噴200在跌個50,那是漲還是跌呢214F 09/15 06:44
噓 abasqoo: 繼續做夢吧 次貸美國房市都沒腰斬了216F 09/15 10:37
噓 BearFather: 以後就不要忘記這篇 還是以後不敢想起來?217F 09/15 12:07
噓 hikku: 怎麼可能會腰斬218F 09/15 13:22
--