看板 Stock
作者 zzahoward (Cheshire Cat)
標題 [新聞] ASML Q1訂單不如預期
時間 Wed Apr 16 14:10:07 2025


原文標題:

Critical chip firm ASML flags tariff uncertainty after net bookings miss

關鍵晶片廠商ASML在訂單不如預期後表示關稅議題充滿不確定性

原文連結:

https://tinyurl.com/2pw3ykzz

發布時間:

Wed, Apr 16 20251:12 AM EDT

記者署名:

Ryan Browne

原文內容:

Dutch semiconductor equipment firm ASML
 on Wednesday missed on net bookings expectations, suggesting a potential
slowdown in demand for its critical chipmaking machines.

荷蘭半導體設備商ASML週三公布Q1訂單不如預期,顯示關鍵半導體設備需求可能放緩。

ASML reported net bookings of 3.94 billion euros ($4.47 billion) for the
first three months of 2025, versus a Reuters reported forecast of 4.89
billion euros.

ASML在2025Q1認列3.94B Euro訂單量,路透預期則是4.89B Euro

Here’s how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the first quarter:

Net sales: 7.74 billion, against 7.8 billion euros expected
Net profit: 2.36 billion, versus 2.3 billion euros expected

LSEG發布的預測比較:

Net sales: 實際7.74B,預測7.8B

Net Profit: 實際2.36B,預測2.3B

In comments accompanying the results, ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said that
the demand outlook “remains strong” with artificial intelligence staying as
a key driver. However, he added that “uncertainty with some of our customers
” could take the company into the lower end of its full-year revenue
guidance.

ASML CEO說需求依然強勁,AI依然是關鍵動能

但部分客戶不確定性可能會導致全年收入不如預期

ASML is estimating 2025 revenue of between of 30 billion euros to 35 billion
euros.

ASML預期2025年營收會在30B~35B Euro

Fouquet said that tariffs are “creating a new uncertainty” both on a
macroeconomic level and with respect to “our potential market demands.”

CEO說關稅正在創造不確定性在總體經濟學和潛在市場需求

“So this is a dynamic I think we have to watch very carefully,” Fouquet
said. “Now this being said, where we are today, we still see basically our
revenue range for 2025 being between basically €30 and €35 billion.”

雖然如此CEO仍然認為2025營收可以落在30~35B之間

Global chip stocks have been fragile over the last two weeks amid worries
about how U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans will affect the
semiconductor supply chain.

由於擔心川普的關稅計畫影響半導體供應鏈,所以過去兩周全球的晶片庫存都一直非常脆弱,

Last week, the U.S. administration announced smartphones, computers and
semiconductors would be temporarily exempted from his so-called “reciprocal
” duties on counterparties. But on Sunday, Trump and his top trade officials
created confusion with comments that there would be no tariff “exception”
for the electronics industry, and that these goods were instead moving to a
different “bucket.”

上週,美國政府先宣布手機、電腦和半導體將被排除在互惠關稅外,但稍後美國政府陳清

這些電子產品並不會得到豁免,而是轉移到其他類別去,進而引發了混亂


On Tuesday, a federal government notice announced that the U.S. Commerce
Department was conducting a national security investigation into imports of
semiconductor technology and related downstream products. The probe will
examine whether additional trade measures, including tariffs, are “necessary
to protect national security.”

週二美國發起對半導體的國安調查,包括是否採取如關稅等必須手段維持國家安全



心得/評論:

ASML=GG上游

目前只是設備訂單階段,不代表會馬上影響到TSMC

但4.89B vs. 3.94B是19.5%的差距,這算是顯著差距

其中中國訂單其實3月應該就是清空了,因為ASML和中國那邊都不知道未來還能不能出貨

因此ASML本來就沒繼續接,同時中國在去年早就先下單囤貨


然而Q1還是無法達到預期,代表有除了中國以外的客戶也是放緩

至於是台灣、韓國還是美國,就不太確定了

2024中國佔了36%的Net sales,其實基本上還是ASML最大的客戶來源之一

假如沒談攏,後續其實設備需求應該也是會Delay

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 136.226.240.114 (臺灣)
※ 作者: zzahoward 2025-04-16 14:10:07
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1d_qd2TV (Stock)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1744783810.A.75F.html
tigerzz3: 川普:我們正在做對的事! (房子燒毀)1F 04/16 14:11
YLTYY: GG在幹什麼?2F 04/16 14:11
coffee112: 跳起來 嗚嗚嗚3F 04/16 14:11
pttstock: GG怎麼不拉貨?!!4F 04/16 14:11
topfree: 結算結束 鬼故事一個接一個開始了@@5F 04/16 14:11
AndyMAX: 阿祖國自身難保6F 04/16 14:11
a70327cow: GG新的還沒蓋好 再忍一年7F 04/16 14:12
DellSale999: 丸子8F 04/16 14:12
ChampionYe: 半導體盤前全面特價中9F 04/16 14:12
clamperni: recession了10F 04/16 14:12
ss425727100: 水水水 全部都跌到股票變廢紙11F 04/16 14:12
CMPunk: 完了 都完了12F 04/16 14:13
lessmoref: 台廠的無塵室案件…13F 04/16 14:13
rebel: GG也怕接下來衰退沒人要拉貨 先觀察看狀況14F 04/16 14:13
takeda3234: 表示gg寧可現行設備滿載上工也不要擴編產能….15F 04/16 14:13
qq866: 又要崩盤了16F 04/16 14:13
FatFatQQ: 成熟製成白菜價17F 04/16 14:13
onit: 訂單不是滿檔 買到後年了18F 04/16 14:13
tigerzz3: 時光倒流回到2022 晶圓跟盤子一樣沒人要19F 04/16 14:14
niburger1001: 外皮內骨20F 04/16 14:14
rebel: 訂單可以砍阿 2022不是示範過了21F 04/16 14:14
k0611812: 衰退交易22F 04/16 14:15
sing60905: 這最直接證明目前沒人要買了 AI蛙不是說滿到不得了23F 04/16 14:15
cir78918: overbooking!!!!!24F 04/16 14:15
sing60905: 上週末還在開香檳豁免 https://imgur.com/r5TYabT25F 04/16 14:15
[圖]
lepidoptera: AI泡泡開始破囉26F 04/16 14:15
snaketsai: 問阿川啊,美國政府才在那邊調查,有種美國就包下去27F 04/16 14:16
e04x8: 熟悉的overbooking最對味28F 04/16 14:17
aaa80563: 至少90根29F 04/16 14:17
jokem: 開始囉30F 04/16 14:18
yoyodiy: 中國都能自製深紫曝光機了  以後ASML只能吃土31F 04/16 14:18
a28200266: overbooking32F 04/16 14:19
aimlikenoob: 台南高雄台積宅死去33F 04/16 14:19
aiolk: 不就DUV賣不好的關係34F 04/16 14:20
deann: 跟台積宅有啥關係?35F 04/16 14:20
wemee:   樓下都看寰宇新聞 堅信中國國產光科機不輸ASML36F 04/16 14:20
GingFreecss: 這家本來就不如預期很久了 台積現在也沒錢跟你買了 錢被美國人趕走了37F 04/16 14:20
bsnid: 數字差異甚微39F 04/16 14:20
GingFreecss: 幹走了40F 04/16 14:21
xander1525: 崩崩41F 04/16 14:21
ealleneee91: 這樣gg還想去美國設廠 設倉儲喔__42F 04/16 14:21
bsnid: 路透社的數字怎麼跟別人差這麼多43F 04/16 14:21
believefate: 看來台積蛙要套一整年了44F 04/16 14:21
aimlikenoob: 你蓋廠不用買設備嗎,設備沒人買廠還會蓋?45F 04/16 14:22
super0949: 不意外 去年被搞 今年又被搞 被美玩死46F 04/16 14:22
bsnid: 只能說LSEG很準 路透社亂估47F 04/16 14:22
Net booking/Net Sales/Net Profit不太一樣喔
angeltear15: 笑屎 鬼故事?48F 04/16 14:22
bsnid: 拿一個市場上估計差最多的數字來寫鬼故事
準的機構就當作沒看到49F 04/16 14:23
你先看清楚一下再來幹譙路透比較好XD
※ 編輯: zzahoward (136.226.240.114 臺灣), 04/16/2025 14:24:45
laogiby: 橋頭勇士 忠誠!!51F 04/16 14:24
ealleneee91: 白x川普 搞到沒人用先進 製程,那竹科拔根拆掉,
去設美國算了52F 04/16 14:24
Leo3492351: 這家哪有一季如預期的沒差啦54F 04/16 14:25
laogiby: overbooking 你是忘記了 還是害怕想起來 cc55F 04/16 14:25
WANGSH: 台灣完了56F 04/16 14:26
Cliffx: 死57F 04/16 14:26
s213092921: 中國:喜歡我的新凱來國產光刻機嗎?58F 04/16 14:26
Cliffx: 訂單隨時都能砍59F 04/16 14:27
jacket664: 斷供台積電機台跟原料根本是假議題,這些設備商會先倒閉,全世界除了台積電沒人吃得下這麼大的量60F 04/16 14:27
rumblefish: 躺四年吧62F 04/16 14:28
kacomo: 先不急著買設備, 不確定性這麼高...63F 04/16 14:28
TMDkid: 300收64F 04/16 14:28
cct1121: 先行指標 糟糕了65F 04/16 14:28
kacomo: 缺貨的話可以加價買, 要怪就怪川普XD66F 04/16 14:29
moto000: 台積:訂單滿出來了67F 04/16 14:29
deann: 台積電又不急著買設備68F 04/16 14:31
[圖]
darkangel119: 20% 剛好兩根70F 04/16 14:36
s72005ming: 完了71F 04/16 14:37
cir78918: 橋頭勇士:烏歐!!72F 04/16 14:41
raxxar82: 大爆崩73F 04/16 14:44
stocktonty: 本來就要下滑了吧74F 04/16 14:46
josephpu: 有趣的是台灣三月進口爆量75F 04/16 14:46
vava5566: 買機器,不知道要去哪生產? ASML虧麻了76F 04/16 14:52
fucking: 直接變NMSL77F 04/16 15:52
wuklean: GG不是訂單滿出來???78F 04/16 15:54
reese0326: GG只值50079F 04/16 15:58
asidy: 歐洲沒關稅問題吧80F 04/16 16:07
Allyssa: 季減很正常,Q1本來就淡季
ASML Q1年增46.34% 誒
比2024 Q1 多46%
新聞都不提
https://i.imgur.com/2SkSADi.jpeg
財報其實還行,就花街要繼續砍股價
淨利是超過預期的81F 04/16 16:54
[圖]
a92011: 春江水暖鴨先知,ASML不如預期是反應未來半導體市況樓上A大股票部位是不是壓很大???  急了???88F 04/16 17:03
zzzzaaaa: gg再拖著不拉貨小心又被川普教訓90F 04/16 17:05
JT0624: 不賣中國就是等台積電91F 04/16 19:09

--
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