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作者 DrowningPool (My broken dreams)
標題 [新聞] 鮑爾：利率將會長期位於高點
時間 Thu May 15 21:07:31 2025


原文標題：Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’
provide policy challenges

原文連結：https://reurl.cc/lzMar9

發布時間：2025-5-15

記者署名：Jeff Cox

原文內容：

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest
rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux.

In remarks that focused on the central bank’s policy framework review, last
done in the summer of 2020, Powell noted that conditions have changed
significantly over the past five years.

During the period, the Fed witnessed a period of surging inflation, pushing
it to historically aggressive interest rate hikes. Powell said that even with
longer-term inflation expectations largely in line with the Fed’s 2% target,
the era of near-zero rates is not likely to return anytime soon.

“Higher real rates may also reflect the possibility that inflation could be
more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s,”
Powell said in prepared remarks for the Thomas Laubach Research Conference in
Washington, D.C. “We may be entering a period of more frequent, and
potentially more persistent, supply shocks — a difficult challenge for the
economy and for central banks.”

The Fed held its benchmark borrowing rate near zero for seven years following
the financial crisis in 2008. Since December 2024, the overnight lending rate
has been in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, most recently trading at 4.33%.

The “supply shocks” remarks are similar to those Powell has delivered over
the past several weeks cautioning that policy changes could put the Fed in a
difficult balancing act between supporting employment and controlling
inflation.

Though he did not mention President Donald Trump’s tariffs in his Thursday
remarks, the central bank chief in recent days has noted the likelihood that
tariffs will slow growth and boost inflation. However, the extent of either
impact is difficult to gauge, particularly as Trump recently has backed off
the more aggressive duties pending a 90-day negotiating window.

Nevertheless, the Fed has been reluctant to ease policy after cutting its
benchmark rate by a full percentage point last year.

聯準會主席鮑爾表示，隨著經濟與政策環境改變，長期利率可能維持在較高水準。他指出
，未來供給衝擊可能更頻繁且持久，使通膨更不穩定，這將對央行構成挑戰。

儘管通膨預期仍接近2%，但鮑爾認為近零利率時代不太可能回來。他並未明指川普的關稅
，但曾提及關稅可能導致經濟成長放緩與物價上升，影響仍難評估。


心得/評論：

老鮑一句「高實質利率可能會常態化」是不是等於預告？

長債殖利率不會輕易回落
債券價格難有大反彈
供給衝擊+關稅效應 = 通膨壓力回來了

債蛙又要哭了？

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 218.32.44.219 (臺灣)
※ 作者: DrowningPool 2025-05-15 21:07:31
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1e9USLKa (Stock)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1747314453.A.524.html
※ 同主題文章:
[新聞] 鮑爾：利率將會長期位於高點
05-15 21:07 DrowningPool
Re: [新聞] 鮑爾：利率將會長期位於高點
05-15 22:30 epson5566
推 gamesame7711: 債挖下去1F 05/15 21:07
→ jerrylin: 債蛙表示哭哭2F 05/15 21:08
推 speady: 債娃崩潰了3F 05/15 21:08
推 YSJ543: 川普要爆炸了4F 05/15 21:08
→ qwert1122: 救救債蛙….5F 05/15 21:08
推 chasegirl: 哇蛙6F 05/15 21:08
→ k102asdf: 老鮑繼續龜7F 05/15 21:08
→ cprodi: 幹 救救債蛙8F 05/15 21:08
推 thetide0512: 歷史罪人9F 05/15 21:08
推 keel90135: 該升不升該降不降 這就是我大鮑爾10F 05/15 21:08
推 kotorichan: 川普又要罵了11F 05/15 21:08
推 YLTYY: 救命12F 05/15 21:09
噓 distantblc: Mr. too late13F 05/15 21:09
推 vanii40: 丸子14F 05/15 21:09
→ omanorboyo: 反正他有任期 川普會換自己人上來大修正15F 05/15 21:09
推 capirex: 99債蛙16F 05/15 21:09
→ YLTYY: 都鈍化沒差了啦 ，只有債蛙躺在地上17F 05/15 21:09
推 a069275235: 搞到自家央行也不知道川先生要怎麼搞了@@18F 05/15 21:10
推 jerry10307: Too late19F 05/15 21:10
→ k102asdf: 老鮑:爽阿 弄死你啊~20F 05/15 21:10
推 r825324: 債蛙哭太久已經哭不出淚來了21F 05/15 21:10
推 samsun34567: 債蛙永無翻身之日22F 05/15 21:10
推 Vvvahc: 多空蛙今天先不要吵架, 我們一起來笑債蛙23F 05/15 21:10
噓 sorrow0206: 死鮑24F 05/15 21:10
推 yipi1357: 翻譯:川普下台 或者我下台才會考慮降息25F 05/15 21:11
→ timidwei: 可憐債蛙.....26F 05/15 21:11
→ eupa1973: 慘27F 05/15 21:11
推 g007: 明年6月就不用看你慢吞吞的了28F 05/15 21:11
推 SilverRH: 川普跟債蛙抱在一起哭29F 05/15 21:11
推 kk4789: 債蛙8830F 05/15 21:11
推 zephyr105: 期貨沒反應？31F 05/15 21:11
推 cct1121: 債蛙呼吸32F 05/15 21:11
→ pwseki206: 川普：我叫你降(怒33F 05/15 21:12
→ lgates: 拆拆是什麼看起來很賤的人嗎34F 05/15 21:12
推 kkchen: 美國經濟景氣強勁成長，加上工業回流美國，美國經濟更是銳不可當，美股上看十萬。35F 05/15 21:12
噓 happy7654: 你不降沒關係
下一任自然會降37F 05/15 21:12
推 webb: 可憐哪….39F 05/15 21:12
推 Momsoup5566: 我大央行：…..40F 05/15 21:12
噓 strlen: 還不就糞川亂放話害的 等一下真降了 糞川又出來邀功41F 05/15 21:13
推 asdfqwer63: 債蛙又下去啦42F 05/15 21:13
→ Leo4891: 可憐  美債20年   乖乖抱20年是應該的43F 05/15 21:13
→ leon1757tw: 債蛙：揪命啊44F 05/15 21:13
推 joe0934: 完了45F 05/15 21:13
推 Aleppo: 債蛙建倉時間可以拉長了，長期抗戰，價差仔可以停損出場46F 05/15 21:13
推 omanorboyo: 下一任 一上台就先降10碼48F 05/15 21:13
推 ioozar: 我真的是乾49F 05/15 21:13
推 zephyr105: 鮑爾再等關稅反應阿 三個月又三個月50F 05/15 21:13
推 bmwmpower: 川普要森77了51F 05/15 21:13
推 zero249238: 用最後的時間搞川普52F 05/15 21:14
→ Leo4891: 當初要買債就該認命領息   誰叫你作價差的找他算帳53F 05/15 21:14
噓 winner0429: 不重要 反正明年就換一個聽話的上來 嘻嘻54F 05/15 21:15
推 yoyotv: 高殖利率月領越多 債蛙好幸福55F 05/15 21:15
→ josephpu: higher for longerrrrrrrrr56F 05/15 21:15
推 Lebrono: 有夠派57F 05/15 21:15
推 Kobe5210: XDDDDDD58F 05/15 21:15
推 djbell: 哈哈哈哈59F 05/15 21:15
推 takuma: 台灣房奴 降息破滅60F 05/15 21:15
推 cxz3388168: 高利率 經濟又沒衰退  就不用降息救經濟61F 05/15 21:15
→ yoyotv: 套哲配62F 05/15 21:15
推 Vvvahc: 川寶出來邀功會怎樣嗎？ Fed不是要獨立於市場制度上還需要在意川普搶政績嗎？ 邏輯不對吧63F 05/15 21:15
推 sonny0927: 債蛙見笑轉生氣 不買不就好了 何必呢65F 05/15 21:15
→ challenge23: 意思就是不會再升息了，降息要考慮，ptt言論反著看66F 05/15 21:16
推 godman362: 只有美債受傷的世界 哭啊67F 05/15 21:16
→ Kobe5210: 記住叫你2023年以來，一直叫你買美債ETF的業配網紅，韭菜投顧跟ID68F 05/15 21:17
→ challenge23: 明年包爾卸任，還不是要降息。ptt的雲玩家哀70F 05/15 21:17
推 YSJ543: 逢低買進沒開槓桿還好吧  開槓桿的債蛙就算了71F 05/15 21:18
→ Kobe5210: 白白浪費2年多的光陰，慘啊72F 05/15 21:18
推 Refauth: 哇！那之前那位債娃神人不就.....噗哧73F 05/15 21:18
→ bnn: 中性利率要調高的意思74F 05/15 21:18
推 Waitaha: 債蛙睡公園75F 05/15 21:18
推 yousking: 債蛙心肺復甦中，幹76F 05/15 21:18
推 ga278057: 還有台幣匯率受傷的世界77F 05/15 21:18
→ YSJ543: 從正二賺錢買低價美債 SOEASY78F 05/15 21:18
推 a26893997: 死媽東西79F 05/15 21:18
推 Shinn826: 上調中性利率4.25~4.5是吧?80F 05/15 21:19
推 Delerium: 如果聯準會買美債 不降息應該可以維持美元81F 05/15 21:19
噓 Senga41: 需要一個新的Fed主席82F 05/15 21:19
推 zero249238: 沒事 長債利率都快5%了 沒空間了83F 05/15 21:19
推 yan08572002: 長期個屁，明年5月你就下台了好嗎84F 05/15 21:20
→ zero249238: 總不可能上6%…吧85F 05/15 21:20
推 ikimiP: 債蛙們 公園集合！86F 05/15 21:20
推 jokem: 阿87F 05/15 21:20
→ vltw5v: 真的只有債蛙受傷的世界88F 05/15 21:20
推 oyaji5566: 別怕 他任期就到明年這時候而已89F 05/15 21:20
→ bnn: 美債那個規模 要嘛你要有生產力突破 要嘛就貶值通膨90F 05/15 21:20
→ kipo1019: 要買債也等老鮑下台後換人再買91F 05/15 21:20
推 Refauth: 不是啊之前不是一海票人說美元應該要弱勢嗎？wwwwww92F 05/15 21:21
推 intointo: 窩要爆炸惹93F 05/15 21:21
推 a524528: 川普氣氣氣94F 05/15 21:21
→ speedythief: 川又要氣氣氣了95F 05/15 21:21
→ alanjiang: 笑死，鮑爾真是趣味96F 05/15 21:22
噓 kinve1014: 直接說在任期內不會降啊97F 05/15 21:22
推 HenryLin123: 債蛙：套著配98F 05/15 21:22
推 saladbread: 反正他也快下了，川普提名一個會降息的去當主席99F 05/15 21:22
→ GenjiEd: 跌414F 05/16 13:13
推 CTQ8523: 挖塞415F 05/16 16:13
推 Marjun: 債蛙QQ416F 05/16 16:45
→ Hjollder: 川普要罵？讓他罵啊，誰理三普417F 05/16 19:02
推 ccjj8: 沒差啦 升息跌 降息也跌418F 05/16 19:10

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