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看板 TY_Research
作者 kadar (卡卡達達)
標題 [討論] 92W GW/TCFA
時間 Mon Aug 18 09:43:58 2025

WTPQ50 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 22.2N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT

https://i.meee.com.tw/JUuuieF.png
[圖]

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ABPW10 PGTW 171430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171430Z-180600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
21.2N 127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AFB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED
MONSOON TROF. FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. A 171235Z
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FORMATIVE LLCC TO THE WEST OF AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ISOLATED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TUTT-
CELL POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTH OF 92W, WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
AND AROUND THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT ONLY OFFSET BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
...
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN

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[圖]

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模式對路徑反應滿兩極的
https://i.meee.com.tw/TJ8bQBQ.png
https://i.meee.com.tw/XnGlzek.png

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.127.163.9 (臺灣)
※ 作者: kadar 2025-08-18 09:43:58
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1eeeLY_Q (TY_Research)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1755481442.A.FDA.html
※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 08/18/2025 09:53:22
推 cjfnued: 中央氣象署也把這個認定為熱帶性低氣壓了1F 08/18 10:00
推 josh861010: 21號要飛北海道欸… 會不會停飛阿！2F 08/18 10:02
推 uodam64402: 92W比較影響到九州四國等西日本地區，北海道如要受天氣影響也不是這個系統。3F 08/18 10:06
推 josh861010: 原來如此 謝謝解析5F 08/18 10:07
→ youngscott: 和之前數值預報差很多 連偏過來都沒有 直直去6F 08/18 10:12
推 Obama: 20日要去九州一週，擔心7F 08/18 11:20
推 abcdeffg: 我不專業看windy好像週三菲律賓東方有個熱低壓生成那個應該影響台灣比較多8F 08/18 11:43
熱帶低壓≠熱低壓
#1eJhbg63 (TY_Research)
[討論] 熱低壓科普 - TY_Research板 - Disp BBS keroromoa Instagram Weather.benny簡單用一張表整理了 熱低（熱帶性低氣壓）　VS　熱低壓（熱力低氣壓）　 兩者的結構與成因差異，分享給大家。 雖然板上對於某些天氣系統會有一些簡稱或暱稱，
※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 08/18/2025 11:47:44
推 abcdeffg: 感謝指正10F 08/18 11:48
推 MarVin009: 菲東海域會出現的應該是90w 目前還在關島那邊11F 08/18 12:09
推 Bustycat: 這個預報不強，會不會停飛自己去問航司12F 08/18 12:45
推 Eeli2008: 又在報行程（白眼13F 08/18 12:54
推 abeliangroup: 九州那個建議改行程吧14F 08/18 16:07
推 deathtrap: 90W除了遠還要看高壓臉色15F 08/18 16:39
→ airua: 等AI開示16F 08/18 16:50
推 MikeSoroka: 新手借版面發問，高雄下午這波大雨是典型的午後雷陣雨？17F 08/18 17:57
推 vaughn: 是的喔19F 08/18 18:04
推 MikeSoroka: 感謝大大，所以明天是否也會下，現在還不得而知？20F 08/18 18:43
推 vaughn: 定量降水預報明天高雄看來也會下蠻大，但這個難講21F 08/18 18:50
推 angryhwc: 感覺走得很慢.......22F 08/18 19:07
推 MikeSoroka: 感謝V大23F 08/18 19:10
推 Chang0212: 近幾個小時似乎沒怎麼動24F 08/18 21:09
推 Eeli2008: 乾掉了25F 08/18 21:19
推 ISISxDOG: 會消掉嗎26F 08/18 21:40
→ dildoe: 等8月底9月初那波好了27F 08/18 22:52
→ aegis43210: AI反而對高空冷心低壓反應比較大28F 08/18 23:01
推 wsc891211: 都已經八月中下旬連一個C4都搓不出來，這樣算異常嗎？29F 08/18 23:16
推 papapopo: 北大Erin 海放西太31F 08/18 23:20
推 Championlins: 6月那時氣象署的颱風展望好像說今年因為是反聖嬰年，西太的颱風強度偏弱吧！32F 08/18 23:24
推 Chang0212: 西太持續躺分中34F 08/18 23:28
推 a27281591: 咦所以今年各幾顆啦35F 08/18 23:36
推 aegis43210: 今年算中性年
niño4還沒到負距平0.5以下36F 08/18 23:42
→ Championlins: 喔喔～38F 08/18 23:45
推 wl3532: GW取消39F 08/19 09:18
推 joy2105feh: 九月初有個大物來台灣嗎？40F 08/19 09:37
推 Lemonfish004: 今年高空環境太差 風切乾空氣狂干擾41F 08/19 09:54
推 cjfnued: 這顆還會發展嗎 都快散掉了@@42F 08/19 09:58
推 ez910115: 好像有，剛剛無聊看gfs,月底有個登陸台北
反正還大旱
https://files.catbox.moe/0lwz9t.png43F 08/19 09:58
[圖]
推 Chang0212: 去年多彩多姿 今年風季都過一半了西太還沒有STY 可憐哪46F 08/19 10:19
推 Championlins: 其實去年好像也是9月開始才比較精彩吧！7月頂多一顆凱米比較強，8月份的僅有安比跟珊珊強一點，其它的也偏弱！8月底以前也才一個強颱！48F 08/19 11:05
推 garry79618: 第一個就南部登陸已經很精采了 XD51F 08/19 11:06
推 Championlins: 前年還比較早就精彩，5月就有一顆強颱瑪娃，還有發警報影響到台灣！然後7、8月的杜蘇芮、卡努、蘭恩、蘇拉都蠻強的！52F 08/19 11:09
推 Chang0212: 對啊 今年怎麼搞的 爛風切55F 08/19 11:21
→ a27281591: 今年有登陸就要偷笑了56F 08/19 13:10
推 cuteman0725: 8月快下旬 東北季風也差不多快醒了57F 08/19 13:11
→ a27281591: 日本氣象廳說青藏高原高壓硬到10月中會影響嗎58F 08/19 13:14
推 xxxff0645: 這幾年夏天颱風都破爛啊   習慣了59F 08/19 13:20
推 huangjyuan: 今年兩顆登陸了餒 可以了
還登陸嘉義60F 08/19 13:25
推 bang59487: 弱弱的問 今年颱風季是不是差不多就這樣了？62F 08/19 13:55
推 Lemonfish004: 以整個西太風季來說 今年目前是爛的要死的程度 風王到現在居然是低級C3丹娜斯63F 08/19 13:57
→ youngscott: 2顆？ 北部表示？？？65F 08/19 14:20
推 Championlins: 一般不都知道颱風季到9月都還是嗎？！甚至10月都還有機會會有颱風來啊！66F 08/19 14:40
推 dunking: 近幾年來都是秋颱品質優於夏颱很多
9月之後才是頂級大物出沒的季節68F 08/19 14:44

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