看板 Gossiping
作者 kevin1959 (kevin1959)
標題 中国经济低迷：消费者捂紧钱包 China's Spenders Are Saving. That’s a Problem for Everyone.
時間 2019-10-11 Fri. 13:48:29
1.媒體來源:
紐約時報中文網
2.記者署名:
艾莎
3.完整新聞標題:
中国经济低迷：消费者捂紧钱包
China's Spenders Are Saving. That’s a Problem for Everyone.
4.完整新聞內文:
ZHENGZHOU, China — Forty years after China began its near-miraculous run as the world’s most powerful economic growth engine, its people are experiencing something new and unsettling: a feeling that the best times may be behind them.
中国郑州——作为世界上最强大的经济增长引擎奇迹般地运行了四十年后，中国的人民正在经历一种令人不安的新感觉：最好的时代可能已经过去。
The Chinese economy is slowing, and the cost of living is rising. The trade war with the United States shows no sign of ending. Wage growth is sluggish. More young people are chasing fewer job prospects.
中国经济正在放缓，生活成本正在上升。与美国的贸易战没有结束的迹象。工资增长缓慢。更多的年轻人追逐更少的工作岗位。
Chinese consumers, who have become more cautious over the past year, are now staging a broad retreat. They are buying fewer cars, smartphones and appliances. They are going to the movies less and taking fewer trips abroad. They would rather stick their money in the bank.
中国消费者在过去一年里变得更为谨慎，如今这种后退的范围在扩大。他们的汽车、智能手机和家用电器购买变少了，他们去影院的次数少了，出国旅行也少了。他们宁愿把钱存在银行。
For China’s young people, who have never experienced a prolonged slump in their lives, the shift is especially stark. China has seen slowdowns before, but its consumers kept spending through most of those downturns.
中国的年轻人在生活中从未经历过长时间的下滑，对于他们来说，这种转变尤为明显。中国以前也有过经济放缓，但在大多数经济低迷时期，中国消费者一直在消费。
Now young people have more reasons to be worried. Job prospects for recent college graduates have worsened over the past year, according to data from the job search website Zhaopin.com, and graduates seeking jobs outnumber openings. Many of those openings are low-paying service-sector jobs.
现在年轻人有更多的理由担心。招聘网站智联招聘(Zhaopin.com)的数据显示，过去一年里，应届大学毕业生的就业前景有所恶化，毕业生找工作的人数超过了空缺职位。这些职位中有许多是薪酬较低的服务业岗位。
“For young people in their 20s, it’s the first real economic downturn that they’ve been through and they are experiencing as young adults,” said Andrew Polk, founder of Trivium, a consulting firm in Beijing.
“对于20多岁的年轻人来说，这是他们经历的第一次真正意义上的经济低迷，而且他们是作为年轻人来经历这一切，”北京咨询公司策伟(Trivium)的创始人安德鲁· 波尔克(Andrew Polk)表示:
“They are now starting to think maybe this inexorable increase in economic growth is not so inexorable,” Mr. Polk said.
“他们现在开始认为，这种不可阻挡的经济增长或许没有那么不可阻挡，”波尔克说。
Wang Junda works on a short-term contract at a complex in Zhengzhou where Apple phones are made. A fresh-faced 27-year-old, he has been a driver for Didi, China’s version of the ride-hailing company Uber, and is working toward getting a truck driver’s license in hopes of being able to make more money. Still, he worries that he will never make enough.
王军达（音）在郑州一家苹果手机生产基地做短期合同工。今年27岁的他面容显得很年轻，他一直在做滴滴司机，也就是中国的优步(Uber)。他目前正在努力考取卡车驾照，希望能赚更多钱。尽管如此，他还是担心自己赚的钱永远都不够。
“Whatever you earn is never enough to match your spending,” Mr. Wang said.
“不管挣多少钱都不够花，”王军达说。
The retreat of Chinese consumers — a powerful force generating $4.9 trillion in economic activity a year — will have global repercussions. Their appetite for homes, cars and iPhones transformed the world, powering global growth and making fortunes for companies like Apple and General Electric.
中国消费者是每年创造4.9万亿美元经济活动的强大力量，他们的退缩将产生全球影响。他们对住房、汽车和iPhone的需求改变了世界，推动了全球经济增长，为苹果和通用电气(General Electric)等公司创造了财富。
It also poses an immediate challenge to China’s leadership, which draws its legitimacy from the wealth and confidence of the Chinese people.
这也对中国领导层构成了直接挑战，因为它的合法性来自中国人民的财富和信心。
乔治· 高和吴梦洁在考虑推迟婚礼——并打算放弃一枚蒂凡尼戒指，选择更便宜的品牌。
The new unease can be found across China, from the glittering business capitals of Shanghai and Shenzhen to more working-class places like Zhengzhou, an industrial metropolis of 10 million in the country’s interior.
这种新的不安情绪在中国各地都能找到，从光彩夺目的商业之都上海和深圳，到有更多劳动阶层的地方，比如郑州，一个拥有1000万人口的内陆工业城市。
At a downtown Zhengzhou mall, Wang Li watched as a few desultory shoppers wandered by. She was among a dozen bored shopkeepers sitting on lawn chairs and stools, watching shows on their smartphones while waiting for customers.
在郑州市中心的一个购物中心，王丽（音）看着几个漫无目的的购物者走过。十几个无聊的店主坐在草坪椅和凳子上，一边等着顾客，一边用智能手机看剧，她也是其中之一。
“Nothing is good. It’s not just this one type of business,” said Ms. Wang, whose shop sells towels, water bottles and keepsake mugs. “Every kind of business is not doing so great.”
“什么都不景气。不光是这一行，”王丽说。她的商店出售毛巾、水瓶和纪念品马克杯。“各行各业都不怎么样。”
There are still indications of strength. Headline retail sales figures have slowed significantly but are still growing at a pace that other countries would envy. Some sales drops, like those of smartphones, are due in part to the natural maturing of the Chinese market.
有迹象表明经济仍然是有力的。虽然新闻上的零售数据已明显放缓，但仍在以其它国家羡慕的速度增长。智能手机等一些商品的销量下降，部分原因是中国市场的自然成熟。
Still, signs of a slowdown abound. The 100 biggest retailers in China have seen their sales decline sharply in recent months, according to Capital Economics. Sales of instant noodles, seen as an indicator because newly affluent Chinese would rather eat out or order in, are rising after declining for several years.
但放缓的迹象无处不在。据凯投宏观(Capital Economics)统计，中国100家最大的零售商近几个月来销量急剧下滑。方便面的销量在经历几年的下降后出现增长，这被认为是一个指标，因为新富起来的中国人倾向于外出就餐或叫外卖。
“The bad news is that all indicators of consumer spending are still softening, and the underlying trend is probably somewhat worse than the headline data indicate,” said Ernan Cui, a consumer analyst at the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.
“坏消息是，消费者支出的所有指标仍在走软，并且潜在趋势可能比整体数据所显示的更糟糕，”研究公司佳富龙洲(Gavekal Dragonomics)消费者分析师埃尔南· 崔(Ernan Cui)说。
The slowdown is coming just as the cost of living is rising. Young people have been priced out of the housing market in affluent places like Beijing and Shanghai. More people have mortgages and credit cards, however, expanding their spending prowess while adding to their debts.
经济放缓的同时，生活成本在上升。在北京、上海等富裕地区，年轻人因房价过高而买不起房。然而，越来越多的人拥有抵押贷款和信用卡，在扩大消费能力的同时增加了债务。
近几个月来，中国最大的100家零售商的销售额大幅下降。
Mengjie Wu, a Shanghai resident and technology company employee, worries about the price of basic food staples, like meat, and medicine for her mother, which must be imported from the United States. She has a mortgage and loans to pay off. Now she and her fiancé are considering putting off the ultimate act of consumption: a wedding.
上海居民、科技公司员工吴梦洁（音）担心肉类等主要食物的价格，还有她母亲在服用的一些需从美国进口的药物。她有房贷和借款要还。如今，她和未婚夫在考虑推迟一项终极消费行为：婚礼。
“We haven’t decided if we will do it yet, because it is not a small cost,” said Ms. Wu, 30, whose dreams included a Tiffany ring and a ceremony in Bali, the Indonesian resort spot. “We won’t do it soon.”
“我们还没有决定是不是要办，因为花费不小，”现年30岁的吴梦洁说，她的愿望包括蒂芙尼戒指和在印度尼西亚度假胜地巴厘岛的一场婚礼。“我们短期内不打算办。”
China’s leaders are moving to get them spending again. The central government pushed out new measures in August, including discounts on big-ticket appliances.
中国领导人在采取行动让消费者再次开始消费。中央政府8月份推出了包括大额家电折扣在内的新举措。
In past years, those shoppers were part of a seemingly unstoppable growth engine. China’s opening to the outside world in the late 1970s connected global companies with one billion people eager to leave grinding poverty behind. As China’s economy developed, a new consumer culture emerged, powered by hundreds of millions of spenders. Spending by households now accounts for nearly 40 percent of China’s roughly $13 trillion in annual economic activity.
过去几年来，这类消费者是一台看似不可阻挡的增长引擎的一部分。20世纪70年代末中国的对外开放，将全球企业和10亿迫切想要摆脱极度贫困的民众联系在了一起。随着中国经济的发展，一种新的消费文化出现，带动它的是数亿消费者。家庭支出如今占中国每年约13万亿经济活动的近40%。
They have become an essential part of the global economy as well. Chinese consumers alone accounted for one-seventh of the world’s growth over the past decade, according to the Boston Consulting Group. General Motors and its Chinese partners sell more cars in China than they do in the United States.
他们也成为了全球经济不可或缺的一部分。据波士顿咨询集团(Boston Consulting Group)的数据，过去10年来，仅中国消费者便占到世界增长的七分之一。通用汽车(General Motors)及其中国合作伙伴在中国的汽车销量超过了美国。
Now growing numbers of people in China are reluctant to spend. A survey by China’s central bank showed rising numbers of urban residents would rather deposit their money in a bank than spend or invest it.
眼下，越来越多的中国人不愿消费。中国中央银行的一项调查显示，越来越多的城市居民宁愿把钱存在银行也不支出或进行投资。
As income growth slows, households are making fewer discretionary purchases and choosing to save more. Sectors like automobiles and smartphones are shrinking as fewer people buy these items for the first time. E-commerce is still booming, but growth in online spending has more than halved over the past four years, the Boston Consulting Group found.
随着收入增长放缓，家庭的可自由支配开支减少，开始选择增加储蓄。汽车和智能手机等领域因购买这类产品的人数首次变少而开始缩减。电子商务仍在蓬勃发展，但波士顿咨询公司发现，过去4年来，在线支出增长减少了一半以上。
The trade war has raised costs for American-grown food, part of an overall surge in food prices. A devastating pig disease has led to soaring pork prices. In online forums, Chinese shoppers are calling for “fruit freedom” and “pork freedom.”
贸易战提高了美国产食品的价格，使之成为食品价格整体激增的一部分。一场致命猪病导致猪肉价格飞涨。在网络论坛上，中国消费者在呼吁“水果自由”和“猪肉自由”。
A desire for deals drove Chinese shoppers to the country’s first Costco, the American discount warehouse retailer, when it opened near Shanghai in August.
8月份，美国折扣仓储式零售商好市多(Costco)在中国的首家分店在上海附近开业时，希望买到便宜货的消费者纷纷涌入。
Ms. Wu, the technology company employee, recently looked for a better deal on some of the food she buys each month.
科技公司员工吴梦洁近来就她每月购买的一些食物在寻找更便宜的选项。
She and her fiancé spend nearly all of their monthly paychecks — about $5,600 before taxes — to pay off loans and their mortgage, she said. But the small amount of money they spend on groceries, roughly $300, has risen by a tenth since the start of the year.
她说，她和未婚夫每月工资——税前约5600美元——几乎全部用于偿还借款和房贷。但他们花在食品杂货上的大约300美元的小钱，自年初以来已经增长了十分之一。
As hundreds of shoppers around them pushed large shopping carts that were mostly empty except for basics like eggs, milk and meat, Ms. Wu thought about the Tiffany ring she had been dreaming of. Now, that purchase is up to her fiancé, she said.
当数百名购物者推着除鸡蛋、牛奶和肉这些基本东西外空荡荡的大购物车时，吴梦洁想到了她一直憧憬的蒂芙尼戒指。现在这项购买的决定取决于她的未婚夫了，她说。
5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20191010/china-consumers/dual/
6.備註:
1.落後國家的後發先制是必然的現象,只要執政當局得的政策不偏離太遠 ,大部份可以達到 ,日本 南韓 香港
台灣 中國 越南,19世紀的歐陸 ,甚至北美的美國 ,加拿大莫不尋此軌跡, 至於失敗的非洲 ,菲律賓 ,
中南美某些國家的起起浮浮 ,原因各異, 不在此討論.
2.中國的經濟成長漸漸成熟, 增長率會漸次減緩, 台灣不是遠離 ,而是審慎的往來 ,不要被拖近漩渦.
3.中國是台灣的生意伙伴 ,卻不是TMD的一家親, 柯匪及韓匪的親中策略就是屎.
除了中國, 全世界沒有一個國家想要併吞台灣, 台灣的國家主權, 人權, 自由民主是不可讓渡 ,不可協商.
4.結論柯奴韓極混是屎人
很有用的字: kowtow=叩頭
造句: Mr. KoWJ kowtows to China to get the huge interest.
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※ 作者: kevin1959 時間: 2019-10-11 13:48:29 (越南)
※ 編輯: kevin1959 時間: 2019-10-11 14:11:57 (越南)