看板 Stock作者 Dubroy (德布洛伊)標題 [新聞] 經濟學人:房價崩潰來了時間 Fri Oct 21 22:07:06 2022
原文標題:
※A global house-price slump is coming
原文連結:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/10/20/a-global-house-price-slump-is-coming
發布時間:
※Oct 20th 2022
記者署名:
※Ricardo Rey
原文內容:
Over the past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose
reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet
today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get
nervous. House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in
America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already
dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in
February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction
is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate
global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of
people with wrecked finances and start a political storm.
The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective
buyers have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit
6.92%, over twice the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002.
The pandemic mini-bubble was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt
for more suburban space. Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for
example, someone who a year ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a
30-year mortgage. Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the
payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less. From Stockholm to Sydney
the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That makes it harder for new
buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze the finances of
existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell.
The good news is that falling house prices will not cause an epic financial
bust in America as they did 15 years ago. The country has fewer risky loans
and better-capitalised banks which have not binged on dodgy subprime
securities. Uncle Sam now underwrites or securitises two-thirds of new
mortgages. The big losers will be taxpayers. Through state insurance schemes
they bear the risk of defaults. As rates rise they are exposed to losses via
the Federal Reserve, which owns one-quarter of mortgage-backed securities.
Some other places, such as South Korea and the Nordic countries, have seen
scarier accelerations in borrowing, with household debt of around 100% of
gdp. They could face destabilising losses at their banks or shadow financial
firms: Sweden’s central-bank boss has likened this to “sitting on top of a
volcano”. But the world’s worst housing-related financial crisis will still
be confined to China, whose problems—vast speculative excess, mortgage
strikes, people who have pre-paid for flats which have not been built—are,
mercifully, contained within its borders.
Even without a synchronised global banking crash, though, the housing
downturn will be grim. First, because gummed-up property markets are a drag
on the jobs market. As rates rise and prices gradually adjust, the
uncertainty makes people hesitant about moving. Sales of existing homes in
America dropped by 20% in August year on year, and Zillow, a housing firm,
reports 13% fewer new listings than the seasonal norm. In Canada sales
volumes could drop by 40% this year. When people cannot move, it saps labour
markets of dynamism, a big worry when companies are trying to adapt to worker
shortages and the energy crisis. And when prices do plunge, homeowners can
find their homes are worth less than their mortgages, making it even harder
to up sticks—a problem that afflicted many economies after the global
financial crisis.
心得/評論:
經濟學人說房價崩塌已經來了
美國建設公司不愧是經歷過2008
去年就已經減產
這樣房價下跌帶來的損失就不會失控
希望台灣的建設公司也有做好風險控管
加上政府強力護房市政策
應該可協助營建類股度過這次危機
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推 ccdrv: 那是美國 台灣會一樣嗎1F 10/21 22:07
噓 cpz: 野雞雜誌2F 10/21 22:07
推 ynd: 這波房價至少跌倒明年中秋了4F 10/21 22:07
→ DDDDRR: 台灣建設公司:平行世界?5F 10/21 22:07
推 bla: 他國事務6F 10/21 22:08
推 kevin28: 不是說自由市場嗎XD8F 10/21 22:08
→ hutten: 別騙喔0.09F 10/21 22:08
推 zakijudelo: 你會被房蟲說沒股點,逼你這篇被刪文,避免影響炒房仔士氣11F 10/21 22:08
噓 jaricho: 鬼島傾國力護房 不一樣的13F 10/21 22:08
→ ynd: 明年6月後應該就開始有房屋甜甜價了14F 10/21 22:08
噓 bandongo: 什麼野雞雜誌,台灣房價不會跌好嗎15F 10/21 22:08
噓 YangChang: 哪來的野雞雜誌,台灣不一樣懂嗎?世界不只有美國16F 10/21 22:08
噓 JessVeron: 下架炒房黨啊 看人民怎麼選啊 笑死23F 10/21 22:09
→ k102asdf: 不可能 我們護國群山天下無敵25F 10/21 22:10
推 ynd: 明年年底到後年才緩步漲價 稍加計算不精準預測27F 10/21 22:10
→ ynd: 投資有賺有賠32F 10/21 22:11
→ DareJ: 阿鬼你還是說中文吧34F 10/21 22:11
推 ynd: 現在都舊房當新房賣 新房當店面賣 開價對砍5折剛好而已36F 10/21 22:12
→ kleber: 美國有像台灣買不動產當儲蓄嗎38F 10/21 22:12
噓 SuGK: 經濟學人跟魯空一樣40F 10/21 22:13
推 pziix: 台灣人是越崩越買42F 10/21 22:14
噓 Seikan: 護國群山你敢嘴46F 10/21 22:14
推 goodbad: 台灣房價不會跌的 因為有「」48F 10/21 22:15
推 EXDes: 台灣房產世界強49F 10/21 22:15
推 jexcel: 台幣又沒升息 是怎麼倒啦 用膝蓋想想吧50F 10/21 22:15
推 miha80425: 兩年內千萬別碰中小建商 預售屋千萬別碰51F 10/21 22:15
推 envy116: 台灣最多小跌,之後降息後再噴上去52F 10/21 22:16
推 ynd: 樓上人真好53F 10/21 22:16
→ ynd: 指mi大55F 10/21 22:16
噓 skyringcha: 台灣寧可全部人去公園當乞丐也不可能跌房價的啦!可能還會拿你的錢補貼房東跟財團呢57F 10/21 22:17
推 rbull: 台灣房蟲有台灣的玩法59F 10/21 22:17
→ s155260: 台灣市區不會跌 野雞經濟學人62F 10/21 22:17
推 alau: 野雞雜誌 政府被暴民綁架 怎麼跌63F 10/21 22:18
→ kilo7: 呆丸房價只漲不跌 賣股求房跟著症腐官員發大財64F 10/21 22:18
推 panzerbug: 台灣房價修正個幾趴有可能,要像台股一樣打七折起跳才算崩65F 10/21 22:18
推 leo3258: 鬼島有政府炒房很安心67F 10/21 22:18
推 foxher: 不是野雞雜誌嗎?怕屁68F 10/21 22:18
推 kkchen: 賣不掉就加價賣.這麼容易 外國怎不來學一學啊???69F 10/21 22:18
推 zzzzzzzzzzzy: 台灣的房價除了921和SARS有停滯一下下,從來就沒有大跌過。唯一可能就只有戰爭70F 10/21 22:18
推 rbull: 連9折都不給你 還7折73F 10/21 22:19
推 okderla: 其實我嚇了一跳 原來這麼多人沒房74F 10/21 22:19
推 DEAKUNE: 美國的啦,鬼島有鬼島的玩法76F 10/21 22:20
推 x58420: 美國佬 學學台灣78F 10/21 22:20
推 mt312: 世界那跟得上台灣房地產79F 10/21 22:20
推 zitto: 台灣房價不可能跌的啦~~~猛猛的80F 10/21 22:21
推 Senga41: 漲到你改變信仰 跌也跌到你改變信仰82F 10/21 22:21
推 jboys75: 台灣崩一崩也好 長久看來會比較健康 喔 不對 有人說牠只做到202484F 10/21 22:22
推 TCPai: 笑死,這理論台灣不適用86F 10/21 22:22
→ sddmavn: 房價在台灣是護國群山 不會跌92F 10/21 22:25
推 j5163124: 房蟲:哪裡來的魯空臭酸雜誌93F 10/21 22:25
→ kilik0960: 不賣自住就不算賠嚕 沒有賣不出去的98F 10/21 22:26
噓 marco79811: 啊不就歐美那種沒有競爭力的地方房價才會崩= = 看看台灣100F 10/21 22:26
→ rbull: 賣不出去就是賣太便宜103F 10/21 22:27
推 vall013: 那是美國,台灣又沒像美國那樣升息104F 10/21 22:27
→ panzerbug: 台灣房價不太可能崩,沒有拋售壓力105F 10/21 22:28
噓 gc1319: 世界根本跟不上台灣的房價106F 10/21 22:28
推 erowii: 投資客左手換右手繼續炒價炒量就好啦107F 10/21 22:29
推 goodbye: 但房價是漲不上去了 至少未來幾年是109F 10/21 22:29
推 tist: 世界怎麼跟得上台灣111F 10/21 22:29
推 ru04hj4: 台灣不一樣 end113F 10/21 22:30
推 ups: 台灣不一樣唷116F 10/21 22:31
推 ss70239ss: 那個realtw不會來股版吧....講野雞雜誌他看不到118F 10/21 22:32
推 alimama: 野雞雜誌,台灣不一樣。賣不出去加價賣啊120F 10/21 22:33
推 panzerbug: 華人的不動產信仰不是白人可以體會的121F 10/21 22:34
推 sdbb: 台灣是真的不一樣122F 10/21 22:34
→ panzerbug: 大中華地區的房價幾乎都是穩定向上123F 10/21 22:34
推 iiqwer: 台灣房地產會崩潰? 哄堂大笑124F 10/21 22:35
→ panzerbug: 不像日本人還會自虐通縮
你看大家在酸,就是人人想買,買房就是寫進華人DNA重劃區的房仲都比超商多,你就知道需求多旺盛126F 10/21 22:35
→ elainakuo: 市場看空 買盤就會縮手 目前都是價沒跌 但看房少很多 不急著買就會降價129F 10/21 22:37
推 shiwa: 感覺跟台灣無關捏134F 10/21 22:38
推 humbler: 台灣有政府保護 很安心135F 10/21 22:39
→ ByronX: 不要質疑政府的決心136F 10/21 22:40
噓 lolicat: 世界不是只有美國
一條街可以有兩三間房仲的台灣房價會跌?137F 10/21 22:41
推 wekaytw: 野雞雜誌 呆丸房地產無腦多140F 10/21 22:42
推 koyo017: 台灣房價有政府罩 不會崩啦143F 10/21 22:43
推 nashQ: 所以內政部長才說是護國神山啊 以後資金絕對看好臺灣房地產 良好的投資環境及配套措施144F 10/21 22:50
推 ctes940008: 有啦,台灣有跌過啦,三十年前台股崩盤那次就示範146F 10/21 22:51
→ bugmus: 這野雞雜誌懂什麼 台灣狀況不一樣啦147F 10/21 22:52
推 rainyct: 台灣利息升到5%再說吧148F 10/21 22:53
→ dasuperray: 竹北死定了 呵呵 減薪裁員沒收入還要繳房貸149F 10/21 22:56
推 BIGETC: 野雞雜誌 台灣不會跌啦151F 10/21 22:59
推 panzerbug: 雙北房價又漲了,股票真的跟垃圾一樣XDD154F 10/21 23:03
推 nakayamayyt: 世界怎麼跟得上台灣 內政部長是說護國群山 很多座155F 10/21 23:04
→ reyes2222: 馬的時代曾經有跌過,然後就什麼減半、青年貸款撐住156F 10/21 23:04
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