看板 Gossiping作者 ros (螺絲)標題 CNN: 石油儲存空間即將耗盡,可能崩跌到負數時間 Thu Apr 2 16:57:37 2020
1.媒體來源:CNN
2.記者署名:Matt Egan
3.完整新聞標題:
The world could soon run out of space to store oil.
That may plunge prices below zero
全世界儲存原油的空間即將耗盡
石油價格可能崩跌到零元之下
4.完整新聞內文:
世界對原油的需求已經消失
馬路是空的,停機坪是滿的,工廠的燈是關的
前所未有的需求崩潰導致原油價格降到18年低點
供給方面,沙烏地阿拉伯跟俄羅斯爆發價格戰
美國的石油公司也不想成為第一個熄燈的供應商
這意味著石油供給出現史詩般的過剩
世界上所有的儲油槽很快就會存滿
路博邁集團的高級能源分析師Jeff Wyll:
市場釋出一個訊號,原油不僅沒有需求,也無處可去
換句話說,倉儲、煉油廠、碼頭、輪船和管線可能會達到極限
據高盛的說法,這是1998年來從未發生的事
事實上,懷俄明州原油最近的報價已經來到每桶負19美分
布倫特原油是在北海的小島上開採,島上還有儲油罐所以相對穩定
但輕原油很多是在海面上開採的,距離陸地500英里
所以價格可能即將達到負數
https://i.imgur.com/I3VmMGu.png
New York (CNN Business)The world's thirst for oil has evaporated.
Highways are empty. Planes are grounded. Factories are dark. The
unprecedented collapse in oil demand has sent crude crashing to 18-year lows.
Supply, on the other hand, remains largely resilient amid a price war between
Saudi Arabia and Russia. US producers don't want to be the first to blink by
turning off production.
That could mean a supply glut so epic that the world will soon run out of
room to store all the unneeded barrels of oil.
"The market is starting to signal that not only is there no demand for this
crude, eventually there could be nowhere for it to go," said Jeff Wyll,
senior energy analyst at Neuberger Berman.
In other words, storage facilities, refineries, terminals, ships and
pipelines eventually could reach capacity -- something that hasn't happened
since 1998, according to Goldman Sachs.
Distressed pricing in some corners of the oil market shows that investors are
starting to price in the risk that might occur soon.
Although headline oil prices such as West Texas Intermediate and Brent are
trading north of $20 a barrel, some regional prices have recently plunged
into single-digit territory. That is especially true for landlocked grades of
crude where access to storage is even trickier.
"Demand is falling so fast relative to supply that very soon many producers'
main issue is not going to be whether they can ensure operating profit but
rather if they can find an outlet for their crude," analysts at JBC Energy
wrote in a report Tuesday.
One storage option: loading all that extra crude onto ships. JBC said about
20% of the global fleet of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) could become
floating storage. But even that would not absorb the surplus.
In April, some 6 million barrels per day of "homeless crude" might literally
have nowhere to go, JBC said, a figure that would rise to 7 million barrels
per day in May.
Oil is really, really, really cheap
Over the last 75 years, inflation-adjusted oil prices have very rarely been
cheaper than today.
Negative oil prices
This oil glut is creating a scenario where some obscure grades of oil already
have actually dropped below zero. For instance, a Wyoming crude grade was
recently bid at negative 19 cents a barrel, Bloomberg News reported last week.
Shrinking storage capacity means that oil producers in some cases have to pay
someone just to take the barrels off their hands.
"The price is trying to go to a level to force companies to keep the oil in
the ground. If it has to go negative to incentivize that behavior, then it
will," said Neuberger's Wyll.
Brent, the global benchmark, is likely protected from this because it's
priced on an island in the North Sea where tank storage is accessible. But
other grades of crude are located far from water.
WTI, however, is 500 miles from water. That's why Goldman's Currie said WTI,
especially WTI Midland, and Canada's Western Canadian Select "can go
negative."
Subzero oil prices are certainly bizarre, but there is some limited
precedence in the energy market.
Last year, US natural gas prices in West Texas traded in negative territory
for more than two weeks because there were not enough pipelines to carry the
gas away, Reuters reported.
'Mother of all market surpluses'
But even then, negative natural gas prices didn't really discourage
production. That's because the West Texas natural gas was largely a byproduct
of oil pumped from the Permian Basin. Oil companies were willing to take a
loss on the natural gas to get what was then a valuable barrel of oil.
With the collapse in oil prices, oil has lost more than two-thirds of its
value since the January peak.
Now, US oil companies are starting to make the painful decision of "shutting
in" production, albeit reluctantly.
Physical constraints have forced at least 900,000 barrels per day of
announced "shut-ins," according to Goldman Sachs, which noted the true number
is likely higher and "growing by the hour."
Rystad Energy said that the "mother of all oil market surpluses" will force
large production shut-ins in April and May. Older, less productive oil wells
will likely shut down first.
Even the strongest US oil companies say they'll scale back spending and
production. Chevron (CVX), for instance, announced plans last week to slash
spending by 30% and lowered its output targets in the Permian by 20%.
Eventually, the industry could lose as much as 5 million barrels per day of
oil supply capacity, Goldman Sachs said.
Will this set the stage for an oil shock?
Of course, the weak demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic won't last
forever.
Eventually, airlines will take to the air again and start buying jet fuel.
American drivers will buy more gasoline as they get back to work.
But by that point the oil industry might not be producing as much oil as
before because wells shut down. Today's oil glut may suddenly turn into
tomorrow's oil scarcity, pushing prices "far above" $55 next year, Goldman
Sachs commodities head Jeffrey Currie said.
"This will ultimately create an inflationary oil supply shock of historic
proportions," Currie wrote.
5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
https://tinyurl.com/vbskzpp
6.備註:
所以這樣去加油可以領錢嗎?
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 60.251.107.150 (臺灣)
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1UXQa4FB (Gossiping)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1585817860.A.3CB.html
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→ jackz: 拜託你去加油 拜託了28F 04/02 17:02
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推 domago: 共3小 昨天太high ?42F 04/02 17:03
→ Szss: 還好高雄沒太平島挖石油,不然賠到脫褲。43F 04/02 17:03
→ moy5566 …
推 moy5566: 慘 以後炒菜都得用石油了吧44F 04/02 17:03
推 Isveia: 現在就暫停別開採不行嗎...46F 04/02 17:03
推 zero00072: 韓導:我沒有食言,人人有石油,石油淹腳目。48F 04/02 17:04
推 widec: 瘋狂買起來阿49F 04/02 17:04
→ Superxixai: 誰先降產,誰就輸了,賠錢也要挖石油,先把對手拼倒就贏了51F 04/02 17:04
→ DASHOCK: 挖個大洞來變石油田~~54F 04/02 17:05
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噓 bighorse0: 感謝韓導德政 要是真的挖出石油 虧死你57F 04/02 17:05
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不採也不行 俄羅斯就是要割喉戰到底63F 04/02 17:06
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→ rei196: 了,加油站員工還問能不能跳停就好,超爽77F 04/02 17:09
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推 holysea: 沒被法壓在庫存了,接下來採的油通通都得放在市場上殺89F 04/02 17:13
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推 ffreakk: 不要挖石油不就好了??101F 04/02 17:19
推 Strasburg: 崩到零元以下是我去加油工讀生要給我錢嗎?102F 04/02 17:20
推 ru04ul4: 石油不是說不挖就不挖的105F 04/02 17:21
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原油今天漲6%以上 po這篇文章的人 活在平行時空?120F 04/02 17:30
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噓 rufugy: 菸黨還不車 降關稅 貨物稅 油便宜有鳥用204F 04/02 18:47
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→ wacomnow: china news Network209F 04/02 18:50
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推 Beetch: 愛河剛挖 完蛋惹211F 04/02 18:51
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疫情過後,產油國恐怕不會讓牆國太好過XD240F 04/02 19:18
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推 zxcc79: 給你錢,快用油249F 04/02 19:35
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推 Luver: 接下來每個人家都要建自己家的油庫259F 04/02 19:54
→ ll1117: 該進場了262F 04/02 19:58
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推 anmimo: 乾 誤會韓國瑜273F 04/02 20:20
推 joeyben: 物價卻沒跌???277F 04/02 20:27
推 csghuuguh: 阿不是說石油快耗盡了嗎???????279F 04/02 20:31
→ j900414: 小吃店這時候又惦惦
便利商店東西該不該降?茶葉蛋該不該降回7塊?280F 04/02 20:34
推 luten: 加油免錢再送兩桶98285F 04/02 20:43
推 bgrich: 油井一旦開採就停不下來,沒辦法拿個塞子塞起來286F 04/02 20:43
推 ADEMAIN: 高雄或成最大贏家287F 04/02 20:49
→ IRPT001: 但小吃店不會降價288F 04/02 20:52
推 P5566: 大家喝石油吧289F 04/02 20:56
推 HiggsBoson: 負數!?如果我買油店家還要給我錢的意思@@!?292F 04/02 21:00
推 beetlej: 中國趁機買,中國或成最大贏家293F 04/02 21:01
推 Subliminal: 韓國魚:本市將在滯洪池注入石油,歡迎市民來挖!297F 04/02 21:10
推 nightstory: 買Luxgen救地球,一人一台,原油馬上供不應求298F 04/02 21:11
→ gssay123: 那個誰在十年前跟我說石油會不夠的給我出來 保證不打死你299F 04/02 21:12
推 Brucetk: 我這裡有負一百,可以買幾桶?302F 04/02 21:17
→ minijin: 今年物流最賺
物價本來就跟漲不跟跌303F 04/02 21:19
推 coolrgin: 如果高雄買油冠下水道 我一定支持啦 幹306F 04/02 21:28
→ laechan: 我就說現在是沙俄恢復理性重上談判桌的最好時機307F 04/02 21:29
推 zephyr105: 台灣還不買爆 存起來 還搞啥風電 草308F 04/02 21:31
推 EIKD: 老闆先來五桶,不用感謝我309F 04/02 21:31
推 only3v: 小吃店要降價了嗎???312F 04/02 21:40
推 casperyus: 有些人真的是中文堪慮,就說儲存空間耗盡,還在那邊說油要用完313F 04/02 21:53
推 LHZS: 石油都比飲料搖搖便宜太多了,看來要改喝石油囉317F 04/02 21:55
推 wei9898: 之前油價漲物價漲,現在是不是要回跌了?318F 04/02 21:56
推 O187: 都拿來作口罩319F 04/02 21:56
推 GSEC: 減少污染320F 04/02 21:57
推 a1len: 說要挖石油,石油就變超便宜;感恩韓總讚嘆韓總321F 04/02 21:58
→ cccsky: 反著看的時間到了?322F 04/02 22:07
推 dreameryu: 大約30年前吧,書上寫石油僅夠再用50年...323F 04/02 22:16
推 awaken: 203樓很會扯324F 04/02 22:19
推 shouyo: 為了消耗世界石油,美國帶頭打支那吧326F 04/02 22:22
→ chaos1526: 不夠用只是當下的技術問題 新技術只會慢慢出來而已327F 04/02 22:22
推 jehow: 完了 等價格回復正常 又要喊石油大漲吃不消 物價怒漲一波了330F 04/02 22:43
推 eetie: 俄羅斯沒美金會先崩331F 04/02 22:54
→ RoxanneC: 整個世界的惡 都被某國用完了339F 04/02 23:46
推 timwuj6: 戰備石油買起來放341F 04/02 23:48
→ a8824031: 不要再跌了 路上越來越多三寶343F 04/02 23:56
→ Bapt: 賺石油猛漲的時候物價也猛漲。這時候物價怎麼沒有跌。為什346F 04/03 00:46
推 kojojo: 就算便宜 你也不會多加一桶...348F 04/03 01:22
→ lici0393: 韓總:太平島挖石油發大財350F 04/03 01:40
推 neal997: 因應石油崩跌 我們調漲產品售價351F 04/03 01:49
推 q2520q: 今天騎車去加油,平時差不多的剩餘量加滿要120以上,今天才79XD353F 04/03 02:53
噓 aaaa8247: 就算這樣物價也不會回降啊355F 04/03 02:59
推 knik119: 從中壢到屏東佳冬 中途吃嘉義劉里長火雞肉飯,及高雄壽山公園,載滿滿物資,Altis總耗油量511元。357F 04/03 07:05
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