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※ 本文為 cuteman0725 轉寄自 ptt.cc 更新時間: 2014-10-08 10:07:14
看板 TY_Research
作者 keroromoa (皮丘使用飛天!)
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 [情報] JTWC 18Z預測黃蜂顛峰將追平Tip!

時間 Wed Oct  8 04:27:53 2014


老J的報文很長,所以我把它獨立成一篇,不好意思~

覺得麻煩可以只看上色的部分和後面的註解就好XD

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 133.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 133.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 18.1N 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 18.8N 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 19.6N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 20.8N 130.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 23.4N 130.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 26.4N 130.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 29.4N 130.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN



老J罕見地沒有從135kts調升到140kts,而是直接跳升到155kts!

並預測顛峰強度會到165kts,追平Tip!



老J理智斷線啦!
        老J理智斷線啦!
                老J理智斷線啦!

--
DanasYuri   :海燕CDO不小.對流極強.水氣紅一圈.梅姬無法比...      11/08 00:04
DanasYuri   :保守一點持平. 但整個型態包含CDO.海燕是頂級的那種   11/08 00:05
Lamuneforty :燕窩                                               11/08 00:40
killseven   :    非常好                                         11/08 00:41

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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1412713682.A.EBC.html
rainstill   : 目前黃蜂的對流似乎有略微減弱的樣子?1F 10/08 05:41
jelly777    : 又要見證歷史了……水2F 10/08 06:49
ben108472   : 早上了 雲頂溫度不可能不升高 下午是最高的時段3F 10/08 06:50
rainstill   : 先別提海燕 幹掉MEGI之後再來說吧XD4F 10/08 06:51
tytony      : 除非有飛機穿越實測 不然要破海燕機率很低5F 10/08 07:39
forestcatcat: 應該很多人醒來後會覺得自己看錯雲圖= =6F 10/08 07:58
jasonccr    : 要看黃蜂的毅力了~~~不過進入白天了....7F 10/08 08:07
WYS127      : \西太逆轉勝/8F 10/08 08:25
killseven   : 西太要贏很容易阿  常常風王都是在西太 所以不意外9F 10/08 08:27
acidrain    : 燕王:嗯?有挑戰者?10F 10/08 09:29

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