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原文標題：

California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in
next five years

原文連結：

https://tinyurl.com/tybhnmzw

發布時間：

THU, DEC 15 20225:18 PM EST

記者署名：

Catherine Clifford

原文內容：

America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and
California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States
are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit
organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.



“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “
normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the
North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.

北美電力可靠組織第54分年度評估表示，被標上紅色的高風險區域極有可能在"正常尖峰"

狀態下出現能源短缺

https://imgur.com/LDtIaW6.jpg

The reasons for the shortfalls vary.

短缺原因各不相同

In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired
than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday.
Projected energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018,
Olson said.

中西區和安大略省問題在於退役的機組裝置容量比新上線的機組還多

In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand
variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in
the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need
the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10
hours during peak summer months in 2024.

加州問題則是多樣化來源和需求變動，再生能源無法跟上需求面的時間點

Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the
United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means
shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot
spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the
elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on
natural gas.

中西區和西部多數都處於黃色風險區域，意味著在極端狀態下會碰到能源短缺

例如糟糕天氣或炎熱天氣下大家會開空調

在新英格蘭冬天使用天然氣發電會造成風險

“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use
of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to
maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.

天然氣存量不足，假如冬天的惡劣氣候持續就有可能發生能源短缺

The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy
generation is low in the region.

西南區也有可能因為風力發電效率低而需求高而產生問題

Extraordinary times

非常時期

“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,
” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on
Thursday.

NERC主管表示，我們正處於一個能源的非常時期

Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out
fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions.
Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have
period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the
wind is still).

氣候變遷導致能源公司逐漸淘汰化石燃料，但再生能源並不是穩定的來源

(如天黑或是無風時)

Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil
fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That
means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from
seven to 15 years, Moura says.

同時再生能源並不能像化石燃料透過運輸運到需求所在地，而是需要透過電網

但電網建造需要7~15年

Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of
cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.

挖礦也是能源消耗增加的原因之一

Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather
events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a
wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.

然後是天氣，NASA認為未來會越來越溫暖潮濕

“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased
reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several
years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather
more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.


"每年我們都看到可靠性受到極端氣候的影響增加"

大裝置容量電力系統受到極端氣候影響比過去任何時間都多

These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC
representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.

這些狀態都讓電網壓力越來越大，NERC催促電力公司加強電網規劃

“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes
to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute
necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the
entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear
that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly
fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”

規劃這一代人退休和來源組合變化來達到穩定能源服務是重要的

管理上必須整合整個體系為基礎，並確定我們不會過早淘汰上一個世代設備

For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the
coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the
coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and
uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be
worthwhile, according to NERC.

NERC長期年度電力穩定評估是基於未來十年，但能源和裝置容量風險則是未來五年

也就是2023~2027

2027年後的狀態有很多不確定性，但未來五年的評估是有高度可能性

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and
enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006.
NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental
agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.

NERC是美國聯邦機構FERC授權評估美國能源穩定的組織

心得/評論：



CA: 供給和需求的時間差(再生能源問題)可能造成1-10小時的短缺

MISO: 1300MW短缺來自於需求上升以及機組汰換容量不足

Ontario: 1700MW缺口在2025年，和機組退休速度以及核電維修狀態有關


再生能源對電網造成的壓力比起傳統石化燃料、核能都還高上許多

對能源公司的規劃以及應變也是考驗

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