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作者 Subaru5566 (愛上速霸路)
標題 [情報] LBJ下家去哪裡的賭盤
時間 Mon Jun 29 07:44:01 2026

https://tinyurl.com/44cchxpp
Odds of LeBron returning to Cleveland more than double
Traders have pulled back sharply on James staying with Los Angeles. ...

 

Odds of LeBron returning to Cleveland more than double as free agency
speculation swirls

LBJ去騎士的機會大增，機率上漲2倍有餘

By Danny Gallagher
Jun 28, 2026


Rumors that LeBron James could return to Cleveland have pushed traders to
more than double the odds of a homecoming over the past week.

The market for James' next team shows the price on Cleveland climbing from
10% on June 21 to as high as the high-20s by June 26, before settling at 22%
as of June 28. Over the same stretch, the chance he stays in Los Angeles or
retires fell from 70% to 50%. James going to Miami now carries a price of
16%, while Golden State sits at 14%.

For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated
with Lebron James or the NBA.


LeBron and LA
The speculation has grown louder as talks between James and his current team
have reportedly stalled.

Yahoo Sports reported that Los Angeles is weighing its options now that the
team has roughly $50 million in cap space to work with.

ESPN’s Shams Charania said, “There was a check-in call made, to my
understanding, early in free agency once teams were able to start negotiating
with their own free agents after the end of the NBA Finals. Since then though
there hasn’t been much communication, from my understanding, between [Los
Angeles] and LeBron James’ side. And certainly not an offer yet.”

LeBron returning to Cleveland
So far, rumors seem to be driving the market’s prediction that LeBron’s
free-agency status will take him back to Cleveland for his final chapter in
pro-basketball. One of those rumors has attracted attention because of the
person who shared it.

Cleveland.com's Chris Pugh writes that local fitness trainer Joshua Teplitz
posted on his X page, “Supposedly, LeBron IS coming back for a third and
final stint.”

It may sound innocuous and just a post from a local fan who hopes their most
famous pro-basketball player returns to their hometown for one more run on
the court. However, Teplitz accurately predicted that James would return to
Cleveland in 2014. So the post is getting a lot of viral attention.

Some sports media members aren’t so sure Cleveland will be able to make a
deal to bring James back to his home state’s pro-basketball team.

ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on The Pat McAfee Show that he thinks it's
unlikely James will go back to Cleveland because of salary restrictions since
they “can only offer LeBron $4 million bucks.”

“One of the things I’ve learned about LeBron is you never count his money
and never spend his money,” Windhorst added. “So, making assumptions that
LeBron would take a lot less money, I see people making that assumption, and
I just don’t think it’s smart.”

Windhorst also noted if Cleveland wanted to make that happen, they would have
to give up a star player to Los Angeles like Jarrett Allen.

“I think if [Cleveland was] willing to do that, they could have LeBron,”
Windhorst added. “Obviously, LeBron would have to want to with [Cleveland].
But your pathway to pay LeBron the money is to trade Jarrett Allen for him.
The Lakers would kill for Jarrett Allen. Kill for him! They would do that
deal in 17 tenths of a second.”

Even with those hurdles in place, traders haven't backed off the reunion
story.

The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict

James staying with Los Angeles or retiring: 50%

James going to Cleveland: 22%

James going to Miami: 16%




上面的文章概要在講，因為湖人和LBJ的新合約談判沒結果，所以在賭盤反映，LBJ回
騎士的機率就越來越高, 6/21最低點是10%, 機率一度飆高到30%

溫胖也提到，如果騎士肯拿LBJ來簽換Jarrett Allen，湖人人求之不得。

但"大盤"走向，LBJ留在湖人或退休的機率，還是壓倒性最高的。

然後也有些許消息提到，熱火和勇士，對於LBJ也有興趣，
最後LBJ留在湖人/退休機率50%，去騎士22%，去熱火16%


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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.14.181.252 (日本)
※ 作者: Subaru5566 2026-06-29 07:44:01
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1gGR73jn (NBA)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1782690243.A.B71.html
※ 編輯: Subaru5566 (36.14.181.252 日本), 06/29/2026 07:44:58
推 JOKIC: 湖人如果拿lbj 換到好籤應該做夢也會笑1F 06/29 07:45
推 cysticercus: 老詹如果配合簽換  代表錢錢還是重要2F 06/29 07:47
推 a10141013: 騎士湊的出薪資? 不是連中產都沒有3F 06/29 07:48
→ Royalweger: 留湖人，拿剩下的薪資空間。應該不會少到哪去。4F 06/29 07:49
推 yabaidesu: 騎士一定是拿Allen換阿 騎士內部討論要賣Allen很久了 他的短板到季後賽就會很明顯5F 06/29 07:50
推 cysticercus: 報價渡輪 被跟就給老詹 但是這樣變備胎7F 06/29 07:51
→ BronyXrG: 老詹幹嘛要簽換給湖人爽一個阿倫8F 06/29 07:52
推 yurikim: 其他9隊的機率怎麼沒列出來？9F 06/29 07:55
推 harrybbs: #1gFyOB3P (NBAEasyChat)  樂透開™  #定存10F 06/29 07:56
[公告] NBAEasyChat 板 開始舉辦樂透!  - 看板 NBAEasyChat - 批踢踢實業坊
作者: harrybbs 01 請到 NBAEasyChat 板 按'f'參與樂透! 一張 30 Ptt幣 (迷你級) 樂透結束時間: 07/01/2026 00:10:34 Wed
推 heroboy: Allen算蠻矮的 也沒投射能力11F 06/29 07:56
→ xbit: 還有12％去那，不要跟我說勇士12F 06/29 07:56
推 yinaser: 老詹想拿頂薪就是要簽換才可能13F 06/29 07:57
→ a10141013: 有 第四名就勇士14F 06/29 07:57
→ linearppt: 回騎士跟兩個簽愛迪達的組隊？就是湖人，姆斯28年打完洛杉磯奧運後奪金後退休，他的完美劇本，請叫我姆斯觀察家15F 06/29 07:58
推 lianhua: 還簽換勒 騎士又不傻18F 06/29 07:59
推 overpolo: 騎士薪資爆了啊，如果簽換，一來舒緩騎士薪資壓力，一來幫湖人拿點什麼，三來老詹薪水條好看19F 06/29 07:59
推 lion3306: 拜託去熱火21F 06/29 08:00
→ a10141013: 消息說 勇士自認為領跑姆斯爭奪戰 沒想到第四22F 06/29 08:00
推 house911: 頂薪+霸王   ?23F 06/29 08:00
→ overpolo: 不可能去勇士和熱火吧，就湖騎退休三選一24F 06/29 08:00
※ Subaru5566:轉錄至看板 Lakers                                    06/29 08:01
→ a10141013: 按計畫是1+1頂薪到2028奧運冠軍風光退休 湖迷吹捧25F 06/29 08:01
→ asn2819: 老詹絕對不是笨蛋，怎麼可能答應先簽後換26F 06/29 08:02
→ a10141013: 退休循迴 立雕像 計畫中啦27F 06/29 08:02
推 overpolo: 老詹不在意薪水條的話，其實他也沒缺錢了28F 06/29 08:04
推 QWE55874: 沒有頂薪一定退休阿29F 06/29 08:05
→ owenxeve: 不簽換=沒頂薪或退休30F 06/29 08:05
→ QWE55874: 拿個一兩千萬，我老詹巨星能看嗎31F 06/29 08:06
推 p20162: 開個六給他 讓他贏莊家一百塊32F 06/29 08:06
推 jasonkau: 他就是在意薪水啊 只要底薪的話現在就是他挑球隊了33F 06/29 08:06
→ QWE55874: 我猜他會退休啦
因為沒有一個球隊會給一個老人頂薪的34F 06/29 08:07
→ p20162: 母獅現在是面子裡子銀子都要到手 誰敢放肆36F 06/29 08:07
推 wallacechen: 拜託不要又出現一個傻隊幫湖人解決這問題好嗎37F 06/29 08:07
推 Kidd0502: 騎士這樣換也沒比較強
兩個姆斯直接變養老隊38F 06/29 08:08
→ wu19911009: 現在能給最多的應該還是湖人吧40F 06/29 08:08
→ Kidd0502: 湖人超爽直接賺一個中鋒41F 06/29 08:08
→ ken720331: 商業價值42F 06/29 08:09
推 etop: 回東區進總冠軍賽還是比較大43F 06/29 08:09
推 otsuka123: 騎士還是打到東冠 問題出在登登季後賽必軟吧44F 06/29 08:10
推 keypad: 拜託去勇士 想看姆斯晚年變curry的小弟嘴綠的沙包45F 06/29 08:10
推 Coffeewater: 湖人續簽姆斯雙贏 二邊商業利益都最大46F 06/29 08:11
推 iverson7761: 發展聯盟也可以退役巡迴47F 06/29 08:12
推 jenchieh5: 最後還不是三千萬留LA，沒那麼多抓馬啦48F 06/29 08:13
推 seg42727: 詹那麼愛錢 想必49F 06/29 08:13
→ otsuka123: 三千簽換 騎士熱火都有可能湊籌碼辦到50F 06/29 08:14
推 gigiabc: 照這篇的劇本 阿倫湖>無姆湖>>>有姆湖
遇到困境的是LBJ好嗎==51F 06/29 08:14
推 oldpigeon: 簽換的話應該就騎士，想留湖人的話，應該會降薪。53F 06/29 08:14
→ gigiabc: 3000萬買到賺到 買的了吃虧 買的了上當54F 06/29 08:14
推 LeGGoRay: 姆斯要3000萬？買到撞到55F 06/29 08:16
推 JarvanII: 簽換要簽3-4年 騎士會為了清艾倫吞可能更老的詹？56F 06/29 08:17
推 kickvsbrad: 騎士已經有詹姆斯了57F 06/29 08:17
推 Coffeewater: 5000萬太貴 但湖人用3000萬能簽到很賺啊58F 06/29 08:18
→ otsuka123: 圍巾po就要三千 湊一湊就有59F 06/29 08:18
推 gigiabc: 自己可以不簽 但是一定要叫別人簽60F 06/29 08:18
推 vSphere: 不是詹黑營銷號發的文，詹酸不會進來領糧61F 06/29 08:18
推 QWE55874: 最有機會得到老詹應該是勇士
勇士老闆很喜歡干預球隊，說不定又在想昏招62F 06/29 08:19
噓 rexagi1988: 收簽換球員不能超過第一層，騎士都在努力壓在二層底下了，怎麼可能去收簽換的LBJ64F 06/29 08:20
→ QWE55874: 花3000萬以上簽老詹66F 06/29 08:20
→ dog29635841: 奉勸湖人不要不知好歹 快點恭恭敬敬的把頂薪端上皇帝面前 不然皇帝又又又又要遷都了67F 06/29 08:21
→ devilsky: 騎士哪有錢給他？底薪嗎69F 06/29 08:21
推 cama: 比較像情勒盤XD70F 06/29 08:21
推 JarvanII: 問一下 為什麼老有姆咪在PTT說營銷號？
昨天也看到一隻71F 06/29 08:21
推 crusoe: 姆斯不缺錢但是愛錢啊！連WIFI都要省的人73F 06/29 08:22
→ otsuka123: 勇士季後賽都難 賭盤可是真金白銀在下注的74F 06/29 08:23
推 f99999993: 姆斯去哪兒75F 06/29 08:26
→ Hohenzollern: 老詹不會直接退休啦 他還在既要又要的狀態76F 06/29 08:27
推 JarvanII: 原來收簽換不能超過1層 那姆斯回騎士沒戲了
難怪沒什麼風向 能可洗去熱火77F 06/29 08:27
推 gigiabc: 留湖人的選項 從77% 電梯向下A到49% 還會繼續A79F 06/29 08:29
推 hydra6716: 底薪上車馬刺或雷霆 再拿兩冠超越MJ80F 06/29 08:29
→ kai08130623: 退休機率高？那就包包款款快點走吧81F 06/29 08:29
推 kenclyde: 我覺得湖人不簽就退休機率最高
沒實力爭冠又不缺錢，退休是最好的選擇82F 06/29 08:30
推 JarvanII: 不好意思 再拿兩冠堪堪追平喬丹而已XD84F 06/29 08:31
推 gigiabc: LBJ原地退休 背後團隊吃老本嗎85F 06/29 08:33
推 iso903306: 米丘 哈登 再來一個詹皇 球根本不夠分86F 06/29 08:33
→ koromo1991: 再兩冠就想超越XD 喬是兩次三連冠 你沾是四處抱腿蹭的87F 06/29 08:34
噓 Sam30526: 馬刺不要89F 06/29 08:35
推 watermelon20: 德克薩斯州沒有賠率嗎 XD90F 06/29 08:36
推 Wesker: 湖人或退休是2個選項吧，各25%併在一起還能這樣喔91F 06/29 08:37
推 LA24: 湖人丟掉就起飛 能拿什麼就什麼92F 06/29 08:41
推 nonom: 比較想知道有賭他明年薪資的賭盤嗎？93F 06/29 08:47
推 a8856554: 老詹還在家裡等人恭敬的遞上合約吧，我看土耳其、法國、澳洲、新北國王都不錯94F 06/29 08:49
推 LeGGoRay: 沒為什麼，造謠本來就是姆咪的天性啊，跟主子學的，除非他們能提出發文的板友有收錢或商業用途之類的證據，不然就是造謠96F 06/29 08:51
推 Colappt: 不在意錢但那是尊重 好耳熟的台詞==99F 06/29 08:57
推 m791017: 可以看到兩個姆斯散步畫面267F 06/29 19:29
→ coffee112: 想家了嗎？268F 06/29 19:35
推 realmiddle: 姆咪最近好忙269F 06/29 21:43
推 ISNAKEI: 留在湖人還是比較有商業價值吧270F 06/30 00:47
→ Lachdanan: 續留湖人吧271F 06/30 09:39

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