※ 本文為 cuteman0725 轉寄自 ptt.cc 時間: 2011-07-12 15:01:50
圖![[圖]]()
文 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0811web.txt
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110551Z JUL 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 157.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 157.3E
(預報略)
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 157.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 30-KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110551Z JUL 11
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 110600).//
NNNN
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看板 TY_Research
作者
標題 [情報] TD-08W
時間 Mon Jul 11 22:50:54 2011
作者
標題 [情報] TD-08W
時間 Mon Jul 11 22:50:54 2011
圖
![[圖]](http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0811.gif)
文 http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0811web.txt
WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110551Z JUL 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 157.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 157.3E
(預報略)
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 157.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 30-KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110551Z JUL 11
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 110600).//
NNNN
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![[圖]](/img/ansi/d/d46afd41903.gif.pagespeed.ce.D6LqyM9oMZ.gif)
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.113.3.42
推 :CWB也標上TD了1F 07/11 22:52
推 :恐怖~~這兩天發展的真快，用色調強化來看整顆紅通通2F 07/11 22:54
推 :22:30那報 已將熱帶性低氣壓資訊補上3F 07/11 22:58
![[圖]](http://i.disp.cc/imgur/j9IiN.jpg)
推 :CWB不是預測它會往西北上去嗎 台灣金鐘罩再度開啟6F 07/11 23:11
推 :CWB的一周天氣預測圖好像參考EC的預測參考很大 所以EC怎麼報CWB通常就會跟著那樣報(我是指一周的預測)我想主要應該是因為CWB自己的數值準確度.......7F 07/11 23:13
→ :CWB都是以EC為主 另外參考JMA和NCEP10F 07/11 23:32
推 :存活已久的94W終於撤編了XD 檯面上剩下91W,92W,08W08W預測路徑與OHC疊圖![[圖]]()
這是故意的嗎XD11F 07/11 23:57
![[圖]](http://i.disp.cc/imgur/mz1OB.gif)
這是故意的嗎XD11F 07/11 23:57
推 :OHC是什麼？
96Hr後反而被往南壓？14F 07/12 00:47
96Hr後反而被往南壓？14F 07/12 00:47
→ :Ocean Heat Content 海水熱含量16F 07/12 00:53
→ :96小時被往南壓 是因為JTWC認為會被其他擾動牽動
08W和92W(91W?)產生藤原效應 這點和GFS的數值很像17F 07/12 01:01
08W和92W(91W?)產生藤原效應 這點和GFS的數值很像17F 07/12 01:01
推 :不專業一推 這個EC的預測大到讓我聯想到1979年的堤普19F 07/12 01:16
推 :看到ec的預測簡直不敢置信~20F 07/12 01:27
推 :可以請問各位EC的預測圖在哪嗎??21F 07/12 08:25
→ :EC預測那什麼鬼... 話說Tip如果用CWB現在的標準
很有可能只給300~350km的半徑22F 07/12 08:26
很有可能只給300~350km的半徑22F 07/12 08:26
推 :JMA:Gale Warning25F 07/12 09:00
推 :早上戴先生說星期五到琉球附近就會逐漸偏北了~26F 07/12 09:01
推 :謝謝markshian大~27F 07/12 09:10
推 :不曉得戴先生有沒有分析沒偏北的路徑@@?目前還很難說28F 07/12 09:11
→ :Tip應該是有C-130穿越觀測才會得到這個大小29F 07/12 09:13
→ :,EC這一報對於未來副高強度明顯報弱,晚點看看各機構是否也這樣認同,或是修正...30F 07/12 09:14
→ :維基所列前12強颱除了Megi以外 都在有飛機觀測的年代32F 07/12 09:17
推 :今早的風場掃描 恰好掃到中心 ![[圖]]()
33F 07/12 09:26
![[圖]](http://ppt.cc/9~B0@.jpg)
推 :既然會北轉 就不用這麼擔心了34F 07/12 11:07
推 :我覺得92W生成颱風對台灣會產生威脅機會比08W大多了35F 07/12 11:53
推 :台灣的金鐘罩太強了0.0"36F 07/12 12:46
推 :擦邊來點雨吧\37F 07/12 13:48
推 :澎湖人其實是盼雨而不是盼風，最討厭強風無雨的颱風38F 07/12 13:56
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(tytony.): [轉寄][情報] TD-08W - TyPhoon板