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看板 TY_Research
作者 kadar (卡卡達達)
標題 [颱風] 99W TCFA
時間 Tue Sep 16 14:18:35 2025

WTPN21 PGTW 160330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 124.8E TO 19.4N 120.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7N 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING
CONVECTION. A 152219Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS BROAD,
FRAGMENTED BANDING. A RECENT 160106Z ASCAT-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH
OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GRADIENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15
KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT
INTENSIFICATION WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON,
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170330Z.//
NNNN

https://i.meee.com.tw/hnHiSx4.gif
[圖]

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GFS
https://i.meee.com.tw/9BlnjDl.png
[圖]

ECMWF
https://i.meee.com.tw/bOP9hHe.png
[圖]


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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.127.163.9 (臺灣)
※ 作者: kadar 2025-09-16 14:18:35
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1eoG4-n8 (TY_Research)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1758003518.A.C48.html
※ 編輯: kadar (59.127.163.9 臺灣), 09/16/2025 14:20:40
推 wesley23: 來了?1F 09/16 14:21
→ explora26: 不是這個2F 09/16 14:34
推 HWtseng: 不是這個，預計23號影響的那個還沒形成。3F 09/16 14:38
推 wesley23: ...Orz4F 09/16 14:52
→ airua: 雜魚？5F 09/16 14:55
→ AlLeN0121: 還好啦 米塔這名字沒什麼記憶點 樺加沙聽起來比較有趣6F 09/16 14:57
推 HellFly: 又要帶來下沉氣流了，麻煩8F 09/16 15:00
推 athome1: 北部又要吃下沉了 生雞蛋的沒有放雞屎的有?9F 09/16 15:33
推 Championlins: 未看先猜會被戲稱為「畫袈裟」或是「畫家殺」之類的！XDD10F 09/16 15:37
推 FOREVER49KG: 卡達～12F 09/16 15:46
推 kingard9632: 下週那隻才是13F 09/16 16:34
推 tetratio: 應該90W才是14F 09/16 17:10
推 ltytw: AI猜的到23嗎？
     之後15F 09/16 17:13
→ davidaustin: 又要熱了17F 09/16 17:33
推 hamasaki7788: 下週那顆不知道強度到哪18F 09/16 17:38
推 Capital235: 不知道未來的樺加沙颱風有沒有可能偏北登陸台灣？19F 09/16 19:46
推 HWtseng: 目前預報還是通過巴士海峽機率較高，繼續多看幾報囉20F 09/16 20:11
推 Championlins: 今年的南部到底是…21F 09/16 20:18
推 cakeGJ: 目前下週23、24左右EC、GFS都算一致巴海通過22F 09/16 20:52
→ dildoe: 依舊是固定苦主 不過GFS後續依舊一連串的餅23F 09/16 20:59
推 Peteribb: 目前下週23、24左右EC、GFS都算一致巴海通過<<<這個是指最有可能發陸警的那顆嗎24F 09/16 21:09
推 thingslove: 回樓上 是26F 09/16 21:10
推 Peteribb: 感謝感謝27F 09/16 21:23
推 Capital235: 了解，應該還有修正路徑的機會28F 09/16 21:28
推 HWtseng: 假如強度夠強，目前看起來南部是有機會陸警29F 09/16 21:30
推 Championlins: 但強度強及範圍大的話，不排除有把高壓往上頂而北偏的可能性吧！30F 09/16 23:20
推 Capital235: 偏北看可以多北，越強越北嗎32F 09/16 23:36
推 HWtseng: https://i.imgur.com/jbmm4Jm.jpeg
米塔快生成了
https://i.imgur.com/CzKIF5o.jpeg33F 09/17 01:19
[圖]
 
[圖]
→ HWtseng: 但是後面這個......36F 09/17 01:21
推 pig5566g: 看WINDY EC的路徑...快到台灣時被高壓往下壓的意
思嗎37F 09/17 09:58

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